斯塔默走了,但英国右翼或许没什么可高兴的
Starmer's Gone, But UK's Right May Have Little To Cheer About

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/starmers-gone-uks-right-may-have-little-cheer-about

英国首相基尔·斯塔默(Keir Starmer)在经历了数月的内部压力和民意支持率下滑后宣布辞职。自2024年7月上任以来,斯塔默将留任至工党选出继任者;该选拔过程预计将于夏季结束前完成。 大曼彻斯特前市长安迪·伯纳姆(Andy Burnham)已成为接替他的热门人选。伯纳姆常被称为“北方之王”,工党内部视其为潜在的“改革终结者”,认为他有能力争取回目前正倒向奈杰尔·法拉奇(Nigel Farage)的“英国改革党”(Reform UK)和“恢复英国”(Restore Britain)的工人阶级选民。 尽管工党在斯塔默领导下支持率大幅下降,但党内预测显示,伯纳姆的领导有望巩固左翼选票,并对四分五裂的右翼阵营构成重大挑战。虽然保守党仍具影响力,但政坛局势依然动荡;右翼党派之间的选票分散,加上工党在换届后可能出现的支持率反弹,或将阻止法拉奇在议会取得突破。随着国家在选举版图剧烈变动中准备迎接新领导人,此次政权更迭标志着英国政治的一个关键转折点。

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原文

Authored by Remix News via Modernity News,

The deeply unpopular British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, announced his resignation on Monday morning, but despite his upcoming departure, the right may have little to cheer about.

During a speech outside Downing Street, Starmer announced he was stepping down after holding office since July 7, 2024. In that election, his Labour Party won 412 seats, securing a comfortable majority and decimating the Tories, who had governed Britain since 2010.

Starmer revealed on the morning of Monday, June 22, that he had already spoken with King Charles III to inform him of his decision. The Labour Party's National Executive Committee will now develop a timetable for the election of a new leader, who will also become Prime Minister. He stressed that this process should be completed by the end of the summer holidays. Until then, Starmer will remain at the helm of the British government.

According to Reuters, the main favorite to replace Starmer is the former Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, who won a seat in the House of Commons during the Makerfield constituency by-election in northwest England on June 18, defeating Nigel Farage's party.

Burnham may pose a grave challenge to Restore Britain and Reform UK, the two main right-wing parties running against the British left.

Under Starmer, multiple polls predicted a strong majority for Reform UK, with some even forecasting a blowout election victory.

However, the rise of Restore Britain had already siphoned off a number of voters from Reform UK, narrowing Farage's lead.

Now, with Starmer gone, some polls show Reform UK barely leading Labour in a general election. A new poll from Politico shows Farage winning 27 percent of the vote versus 20 percent for Labour under Starmer's current numbers - but when tested against Burnham, Labour's chances receive a significant boost. Some within Labour even describe Burnham as a "Reform Slayer," as he polls better against Farage than anyone else in the party.

Nevertheless, the Politico article also describes an uphill battle for Burnham, given how far Labour has fallen out of favour with British voters during Starmer's rule. Notably, Burnham is described as more left-wing than Starmer, who is categorized as a "centrist."

Although the Tories are still seen as a formidable election force, they have long since discarded any semblance of right-wing politics. Nevertheless, they are also siphoning voters away from both Restore Britain and Reform UK, retaining voters who might lean personally to the right but still vote Conservative out of habit.

The combined effect of vote-splitting on the right and Burnham leading Labour could deliver a shock upset in favor of Labour, ending Farage's dream of winning the office of prime minister.

British commentators point out that Starmer's position has been weakening for months. More than 100 Labour MPs - around a quarter of the parliamentary party in the House of Commons - had publicly stated they wanted the prime minister to resign or set a timetable for his departure.

Labour Party members pointed to a total loss of trust in the head of government and his leadership abilities. The government had recently been rocked by a number of high-profile resignations, including Health Secretary Wes Streeting and Defence Secretary John Healey.

Polling also showed that Labour members overwhelmingly wanted Burnham, nicknamed the "King of the North" after winning three consecutive mayoral terms. He is currently Labour's most popular politician. His recent victory in the Makerfield seat also bodes poorly for Reform UK and Restore Britain; the constituency is predominantly white and working-class, representing the exact demographic that these two right-wing parties are seeking to win over from Labour.

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