The recent spike in the cost to hire a supertanker carrying 2 million barrels of crude from Saudi Arabia to China is now being sharply reversed, as more shippers send vessels through the Strait of Hormuz and normalization trends continue to improve.
Bloomberg reports that tanker rates for the Saudi Arabia-to-China route tumbled to about $287K on Friday, down 44% from more than $514K on Tuesday. That data came from the Baltic Exchange.
Rates remain elevated and still highly profitable for owners, but the sharp drop late in the week suggests the market is beginning to normalize after an interim U.S.-Iran peace deal reduced the war risk premium around the Hormuz chokepoint. Early movers certainly capitalized on lofty rates last week.
According to Bloomberg data, 48 vessels have transited the narrow waterway on Friday, though that does not include ships that switched off their transponders.
By the end of the week, Brent crude fell below $72 per barrel, while WTI traded around $69, hovering near pre-war levels.
A late Thursday note from Arrow Shipping & Energy said that 75 million barrels of crude have flowed out of the Persian Gulf via tankers since the U.S. and Iran signed an interim peace deal. Persian Gulf exports are now at about 75% of pre-war levels, according to Bloomberg estimates.
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Tanker loadings are now resuming at Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura terminal, yet another sign exports from allied Gulf countries are ramping up.
"Crude remains under significant pressure as the bearish narrative continues to center on improving flows through the Strait of Hormuz," said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. "While transit numbers appear somewhat lower following yesterday's attack on a vessel, traffic has not stopped entirely."
HSBC analyst Kim Fustier said the reopening of the Hormuz waterway has created a "near-term supply overhang; Gulf exports rebound faster than the market can absorb them."
Fustier noted, "China remains key swing buyer," but said the "next inflection point when backlog of stranded vessels runs out and SPR releases end in July," may shift Brent back towards $80/bbl.