Recent moves at the European and national levels bode ill for them...
The European Commission proposed to exclude new military-aged Ukrainian men from the bloc’s special refugee protection scheme per Ukraine’s request to help replenish its lost forces. For background, new Ukrainian Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov shockingly revealed in January that 200,000 men have already deserted thus far and ten times more (2 million) are actively dodging the draft. Moreover, adult men comprise 26% of the 4.3 million Ukrainians in the EU for another one million potential conscripts.
The forcible conscription policy known as “busification”, which refers to capturing military-aged men off the street and throwing them into minibuses that then take them straight to local training centers and finally the frontlines, is wildly unpopular and increasingly being resisted by the population. It’s therefore much easier for the EU to deport ineligible military-aged men that flee to the bloc going forward, but the ideal solution from Ukraine’s perspective is for all those that are already there to be deported as well.
Denmark is planning to do precisely that. According to RT, “The Danish authorities want to amend a special law passed in 2022 to make Ukrainian men aged 23 to 60 ineligible for temporary residence permits unless they have been granted an exemption from military service. Ukrainian men under 23 would only be granted residence permits until they reach draft age.” Less than 50,000 Ukrainians have residence permits under this law, and maybe one-quarter are adult males, but it would still be symbolic.
Other countries could potentially follow Denmark’s lead on the basis that they too, as explained by the Danish Immigration Minister, “never intended for our residence rules to be used to avoid mobilization into the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Doing so undermines Ukraine’s war effort and weakens the country’s ability to defend itself against Russian attacks.” Amidst the spiraling Polish-Ukrainian dispute over Zelensky’s state glorification of the Volhynia Genocide’s OUN-UPA culprits, all eyes are on Warsaw.
The ruling liberal coalition, like the conservative government that it replaced in late 2023, appears to be in favor of retaining special privileges for adult Ukrainian males for alleged economic reasons. Be that as it may, the conservatives have recently soured on Ukraine and its refugees, nowadays signaling that they might be open to deporting some of them. While that would help Ukraine against Russia like Poland has always sought to do, it would also be doing Zelensky’s bidding, so they might reconsider their support.
Likewise, the Ukrainophilic liberal coalition might sacrifice the alleged economic benefits that Poland receives from adult Ukrainian male refugees by deporting them, albeit with the purpose of pleasing Zelensky and perhaps as an “olive branch” amidst the conservative president’s feud with him. It’s too early to tell what this group’s future in Poland might be, but the scenario of at least some of them being deported can’t be ruled out, which could help the liberals ahead of fall 2027’s next Sejm elections.
As Ukraine continues to lose ground along the front, which the dramatic visuals from its recent spree of strikes against Russia is aimed in part at distracting the global public from, Kiev is expected to ramp up its pressure campaign against the EU – and particularly Poland – to obtain more meat for the grinder.
Trump’s plans of “escalating to de-escalate” with Russia through an intense “war of attrition” require the replenishment of Ukraine’s forces, so if “busification” doesn’t suffice, then this is the only fallback plan.
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