Cocoa futures in New York have doubled since the start of March and have now climbed back toward levels not seen since late 2025, around $6,000 a ton, as Jefferies analysts warn that a "perfect storm's a-brewing" across West Africa, the world's top cocoa-farming region.

Jefferies analyst Scott Marks wrote in a note on Tuesday that new weather concerns center on Ivory Coast and Ghana, the world's top cocoa-growing regions.

He said that temperatures in both countries have been about 2F below five-year averages since March, while rainfall in June ran about 46% above average in Ivory Coast and 52% above average in Ghana. Excess rain increases the risk of black pod and brown rot. 

Early surveys of Ivory Coast's 2026/27 crop point to below-average cherelle formation and poor pod development.

Industry estimates now show around 1.7 to 1.8 million metric tons, down about 18% from roughly 2.2 million tons in 2025/26, the analyst noted.

Global cocoa market snapshot still dire:

A 2024/2025 estimated global cocoa surplus of ~48 thousand tons is now expected according to ICCO reports published May'26, below prior estimates of ~75 thousand tons

With the global cocoa stock-to-grinding ratio still below the historical avg, but an improvement from the 2023/24 season

Beyond the current adverse weather conditions in Ivory Coast and Ghana, traders are also monitoring the risk of an El Niño later this year, which could produce hot, dry winds that sweep across West Africa and further damage cocoa output.