特朗普批准沙特核协议,该国或可进行铀浓缩
Trump Greenlights Saudi Nuclear Deal, Uranium Enrichment In The Kingdom Possible

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-greenlights-saudi-nuclear-deal-uranium-enrichment-kingdom-possible

特朗普总统已批准与沙特阿拉伯签署一项为期30年的民用核能合作协议,使美国公司有望主导该王国的核能发展。该协议为核能的和平利用与核不扩散建立了法律框架,旨在确保美国的监管,并防止沙特阿拉伯转向俄罗斯或中国寻求核技术。目前,该协议正面临国会为期90天的审查。 尽管这一伙伴关系加强了美沙关系,并为抗衡外国竞争对手提供了战略替代方案,但其中包含一项争议性条款:允许美国公司在沙特境内建造铀浓缩设施。批评人士认为,这具有内在风险,因为浓缩技术属于两用技术,可能被转用于武器开发。 作者提出了一种更安全的替代方案:美国应扩大国内的浓缩产能,直接向沙特阿拉伯供应核燃料。通过出口产品而非敏感设备,华盛顿既能保持关键的影响力、支持美国就业,又能确保地区安全,且无需扩散危险技术。归根结底,虽然该协议在战略上是合理的,但授权转让浓缩技术是以牺牲过多的安全为代价,来换取工业参与。

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原文

President Trump has formally approved a landmark 30-year civil nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia that could be worth tens of billions of dollars and put American companies at the center of the kingdom's nuclear buildout, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The accord is expected to be signed Wednesday by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, then head to Congress for a 90-day review. Lawmakers could block it through a joint resolution, but overriding a Trump veto would require two-thirds majorities in both chambers.

There is plenty to like here. A Section 123 agreement creates a legal framework for peaceful use, safeguards, and nonproliferation. American involvement also gives Washington more influence over Riyadh's program than it would have if Saudi Arabia turned to China or Russia.

The agreement is the latest step in a rapidly deepening relationship. The administration previously delinked Saudi nuclear talks from normalization with Israel, while Trump later designated the kingdom a major non-NATO ally after Mohammed bin Salman's return to the White House.

Yet one provision is difficult to support: “A key provision of the new accord would have American companies build an uranium enrichment facility in Saudi Arabia if a joint U.S.-Saudi study determines such a step would be warranted.”

The 123 accord is not a turnkey export license, and any technology transfer would still require separate federal approval, but the policy direction is clear.

The strongest argument for this arrangement is that US technology and oversight would keep Washington inside the tent and make diversion harder. That is a legitimate advantage, but it doesn’t eliminate the underlying risk.

Uranium enrichment is inherently dual-use. Centrifuges producing reactor fuel enriched to 3 to 5% can be reconfigured toward weapons-grade material above 90%. Safeguards can monitor declared activity, but technology, infrastructure, and trained personnel endure long after a government or regional balance changes. 

Mohammed bin Salman has also said Saudi Arabia would pursue a bomb if Iran obtained one. The UAE, another close Gulf partner, accepted the so-called gold standard by renouncing enrichment and reprocessing.

The better model is simple: export the product, not the technology.

As we recently argued, Washington should overbuild uranium conversion and enrichment capacity inside the United States, then supply allies with safeguarded fuel under long-term contracts. Saudi Arabia would receive reliable reactor fuel, American workers would capture the investment, US suppliers would gain durable export revenue, and sensitive technology would remain under US jurisdiction.

No contractors have been announced. Centrus looks like the leading technology candidate given its operating US-origin centrifuge cascade and deep Department of Energy ties, with General Matter the emerging alternative. 

Bechtel has the Saudi and nuclear pedigree to participate, but Centrus' existing EPC partnership with Fluor gives Fluor the stronger documented construction claim.

The agreement is strategically sound if it anchors Riyadh to American reactors, fuel, standards, and safeguards. But building Saudi enrichment capability trades away too much leverage in pursuit of that goal. Washington should sell the kingdom decades of American-made fuel, not the machinery that can ultimately make far more than fuel.

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