债券与黄金价格跳涨,美元因加息预期随非农数据疲软而大跌
Bonds & Bullion Jump, Dollar Dumps As Rate-Hike Odds Slump After Payrolls Miss

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-bullion-jump-dollar-dumps-rate-hike-odds-slump-after-payrolls-miss

今天令人意外的疲软就业数据——比预期少出2.3万个就业岗位——引发了市场“坏消息即好消息”的反应。弱于预期的劳动力增长大幅降低了市场对近期加息的预期,助长了美联储将在九月维持利率不变的猜测。 这种情绪的转变触发了风险资产的普涨:国债收益率下跌,美元走软,纳斯达克指数和黄金价格攀升。尽管一些分析师(如摩根大通的分析师)将这种疲软归因于季节性招聘结束等暂时性技术因素,但另一些人警告称,该数据反映了不容忽视的劳动力供给萎缩问题。 最终,市场的关注点已从对通胀的担忧转向了对增长的担忧。尽管美联储政策仍存在不确定性,但直接结果是市场乐观情绪激增,因为投资者更看重宽松货币政策环境的前景。

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原文

As we noted in our preview, today's payrolls print was indeed "bad news is good news" as the surprise five-sigma miss (-23k) on payrolls (albeit with a drop in the unemployment rate) sent rate-hike odds reeling lower...

History doesn’t repeat, but sometimes it rhymes. For the third time in as many years, July jobs data saw a mid-summer loss of momentum. While incoming inflation data will be the ultimate arbiter, slowing jobs growth helps support a September hold,” says Lindsay Rosner, head of multi sector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

That helped smash Treasury yields lower, led by the short-end...

...which in turn crushed the dollar...

...lifting gold above $4350...

Some good news for Bessent, JPY is strengthening...

Stocks are also soaring, with Nasdaq leading the way...

Admittedly, as JPMorgan's Feroli flagged, technical effects such unwinding of World Cup-related hiring could have driven the softer payroll print...

Jeffrey Rosenberg, a portfolio manager at BlackRock, says on Bloomberg TV, “I’d be hesitant to just write this report off.”

He says that the decline in the unemployment rate essentially reflects a drop in the supply side of the labor market. 

... but for now, the panic among the Fed whisperers that Warsh has unleashed more uncertainty (and is driving up the term premium) is now a back story as attention shifts from inflation back to growth.

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