Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

Intelligence officials are warning that a group of Republican extremists in Ireland, known as the New IRA, is preparing a campaign of violence to drive migrants out of the country, complete with talk of civil war and 24-hour ultimatums.

The claims, amplified across major outlets this weekend, arrive at a moment when frustration with mass migration and the crimes linked to it has reached boiling point on both sides of the border.

Whether the threat is as advanced as portrayed, or whether the timing serves to tar ordinary opposition to open borders with the brush of terrorism, remains an open question.

Security sources told the Mail on Sunday that the New IRA has two aims: Irish independence and "all migrants out."

One source stated: "The New IRA have been very active this year in the North in attacks against the Police Service of Northern Ireland, at Lurgan police station and a car bomb at Dunmurry. They have two aims: Irish independence and all migrants out. We believe it is part of a power struggle going on between factions within the group of the old IRA, the Real and the New IRA, with the new incarnations advocating a campaign of violent intimidation."

A video circulating on a far-right platform featured an unidentified man declaring: "They will take control, and they will give an ultimatum, not to politicians but to the illegal migrants who are in the country."

He added: "It is now going to be time for civil war, and that is exactly what these guys are going to be doing and can you blame them? This will be a major wake-up call for the authorities. These guys will show them how it's done and give them 24 hours to leave."

UK officials are said to be on alert that any such campaign could push migrants north across the open land border into Northern Ireland and then into Great Britain. The Home Office offered its standard line: "We have a close and collaborative working relationship with Ireland on migration and border security. This includes a mutual commitment to protect the Common Travel Area from abuse, delivered through joint work to identify and tackle migration trends as they emerge."

The New IRA has been active this year. In July, 25-year-old law student Isobella Perrie Sullivan was charged with possessing explosives after a device was found in a vehicle in the Republic.

The group maintains social-media links with Scottish nationalist circles. Yet the sudden prominence given to its alleged anti-migrant turn sits against a backdrop of repeated, graphic failures of the migration system that the same authorities have struggled to address.

In June 2026, the stabbing of Stephen Ogilvie in Belfast, allegedly by Sudanese asylum seeker Hadi Alodid, triggered serious disorder. Earlier that month an African migrant was filmed in a north Belfast street attack, straddling a local man and attempting to saw his head off with a Stanley knife. Bystanders had to stop him. Official descriptions reduced it to a "stabbing."

The previous summer saw three nights of anti-immigration riots across Northern Ireland after alleged sex crimes involving non-native teenagers in Ballymena. Homes burned, more than thirty officers were injured, and residents marked doors with Union flags simply to avoid being targeted.

Footage of two-tier policing continues to surface. In Dungannon, a group of armed foreign youths appeared in a Protestant area carrying knives and sticks. A local man picked up a stick. Police ran past the armed group and arrested him.

Against this record, the rapid elevation of a New IRA "civil war plot" risks collapsing legitimate public rejection of mass migration into the same category as paramilitary activity.

The framing is neat. It allows officials and media to present the choice as between "terrorists" and the status quo, while the underlying drivers of anger remain largely untouched.

That pattern sits inside a wider set of warnings that have been issued for years. Professor David Betz of King's College London has stated that many European countries are already in a pre-civil war condition. "Europe is on track for civil war," he has said, adding that societies are "past the tipping point."

Retired Colonel Richard Kemp has been equally direct. He has predicted "not just civil unrest but civil war in the UK in the coming years" because governments lack the will to confront the causes. "The people will feel they have no option than to take action into their own hands," he has warned.

Elon Musk told an interviewer that civil war in Britain is "inevitable" once a large, rapidly growing population holds beliefs antithetical to Western norms. "If you have a large and growing, rapidly growing, group of people whose beliefs are antithetical to western beliefs, at some point there will be a reckoning," he said.

Meanwhile the British state continues practical preparations. Households have been urged to stockpile food, water and medicines. Major home-defence wargames are scheduled for 2027. Official explanations point to hybrid threats and Russia. Analysts note the overlap with the internal risks Betz and others have described.

Britain's path has not been accidental. Decades of elite-driven demographic change, two-tier enforcement and refusal to maintain borders have produced the conditions now being exploited.

The sudden focus on a New IRA anti-migrant campaign allows the conversation to shift from those failures to the more comfortable territory of "extremism."

Ordinary people who simply reject the scale and consequences of mass migration find their concerns quietly folded into the same narrative.

The Common Travel Area once symbolised cooperation. Combined with uncontrolled inflows it has become a pressure valve. Violence or intimidation in one jurisdiction simply moves the problem into the other. Carefully worded assurances about "joint work" do not reverse the changes already locked in.

What is unfolding is not solely a republican revival. It is one more indication that the open-borders experiment has broken the social contract. When street-level reality includes beheading attempts, sex attacks and selective policing, while official messaging pivots to paramilitary threats against migrants, public trust evaporates further.

The New IRA may be small. The decision to elevate its alleged new focus at this precise moment still serves a useful purpose: it reframes resistance to mass migration as something darker than simple self-preservation.

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