1873年经济恐慌
Panic of 1873

原始链接: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1873

1871年德国统一后,德国与奥匈帝国经历了“奠基时代”(Gründerjahre),即一段由法国战争赔款和自由化公司法驱动的经济高速扩张期。资本过剩导致了铁路和工业领域的投机泡沫,金本位制的采用更是加剧了这一趋势。 1873年5月9日,维也纳证券交易所崩盘,随后柏林也爆发了“奠基者危机”(Gründerkrach),泡沫随之破裂。这场危机引发了广泛的银行倒闭和经济萎缩。尽管恐慌情绪滋生了针对犹太人的替罪羊心理,但中欧地区的经济复苏比美国更快,且对劳动力的依赖程度更低。 从长远来看,该地区进入了以物价下跌为特征的“大萧条时期”(1873–1896)。然而,德国通过增加资本积累并对基础设施和工业产能进行大规模投资,表现优于英国。在英国因供给调整停滞不前时,德国的战略性投资刺激了需求,从而带动了显著的工业增长,并为现代德国经济奠定了基础。

这篇 Hacker News 的讨论探讨了 1873 年恐慌与当前人工智能投资格局之间的相似之处。用户们争论 AI 行业是否映射了历史上的铁路繁荣时期,而该时期以大量投机以及向无即时回报项目注入巨额资本为特征。 一些评论者认为,AI 代表了一种不同的风险状况。虽然铁路是 19 世纪经济中庞大且有形的板块,但其他人指出,当前 AI 对算力的需求是真实的。相反,他们认为真正的危险存在于更广泛的金融体系中:中央银行推高了资产价格,造成了一种掩盖潜在经济不稳定的“财富效应”。 这次对话凸显了一个反复出现的周期,即新的技术革命会引发金融泡沫。尽管怀疑论者认为单凭 AI 崩溃不足以像 1873 年恐慌那样动摇全球经济,但参与者强调,在投机狂热和可疑货币政策的共同驱动下,市场调整很可能是不可避免的。此外,一些用户简要澄清了有关 1873 年经济大萧条历史时间线的细节,指出其持续时间在不同地区存在显著差异。
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原文

Germany and Austria-Hungary

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Black Friday, 9 May 1873, Vienna Stocks

Economic expansion took place in Germany and Austria-Hungary, where the period from German unification in 1870 and 1871 to the crash in 1873 came to be called the Gründerjahre ("Founders' Years"). A liberalized incorporation law in Germany gave impetus to a rise in IPOs the foundation of enterprises such as Deutsche Bank, and the incorporation of established ones. After the Franco-Prussian War in 1871 there was a massive influx of capital from the payment by France of war reparations. According to Liaquat Ahamed "German states paid off their debts. So they retired all their government bonds, and the savers who held German government bonds were left with cash. The question was what to do with this cash." It was invested in the stock market and fueled speculation in railways, factories, docks, and steamships, the same industrial branches that expanded unsustainably in the United States.[4] In the immediate aftermath of his victory against France, Otto von Bismarck also began the process of silver demonetization and placed Germany on the gold standard.[5] The process began on 23 November 1871 and culminated in the introduction of the gold mark on 9 July 1873 as the currency for the newly founded German Empire, replacing the silver coins of all constituent lands. Demonetization of silver was thus a common element in the crises on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean.

On 9 May 1873, the Vienna Stock Exchange crashed because it was unable to sustain the bubble of false expansion, insolvencies, and dishonest manipulations.[citation needed] A series of Viennese bank failures ensued, causing a contraction of the money available for business lending. One of the more famous people who went bankrupt in 1873 was Stephan Keglevich of Vienna, a relative of Gábor Keglevich who had been the master of the royal treasury (1842–1848) and in 1845 had co-founded a financial association to fund the expansion of Hungarian industry and to protect the loan repayments, similar to the 1870 Kreditschutzverband, an Austrian association for the protection of creditors and the interests of its members in cases of bankruptcy. That made it possible for several Austrian banks to be established in 1873 after the Vienna Stock Exchange crash.[6]

In Berlin, the railway empire of Bethel Henry Strousberg crashed after a ruinous settlement with the government of Romania, bursting the speculation bubble in Germany. The contraction of the German economy was exacerbated by the conclusion of payments by France in September 1873. Two years after the foundation of the German Empire, the panic came and became known as the Gründerkrach or "Founders' Crash".[7][8][9] In 1865, Keglevich and Strousberg had come into direct competition in a project in what is now Slovakia. In 1870 the Hungarian government, and in 1872 the Emperor-King Franz Joseph of Austria, resolved the question of the competing projects.[10][11]

Although the collapse of the foreign loan financing had been predicted, the events of that year were in themselves comparatively unimportant. Buda, the old capital of Hungary, and Óbuda were officially united with Pest,[12] thus creating Budapest in 1873. The difference in stability between Vienna and Berlin had the effect that the French indemnity to Germany flowed into Austria and Russia, but the indemnity payments aggravated the crisis in Austria, which had benefited by the accumulation of capital not only in Germany but also in England, the Netherlands, Belgium, France, and Russia.[13]

Recovery from the crash occurred much more quickly in Europe than in the United States.[14][15] Moreover, German businesses managed to avoid the sort of deep wage cuts that embittered American labor relations.[15] There was an anti-Semitic component to the economic recovery in Germany and Austria, as small investors blamed Jews for their losses in the crash.[16][17] The Neuer Sozial-Demokrat newspaper of the General German Workers' Association (ADAV) published several articles blaming Gerson von Bleichröder for the stock market crash. An October 29 article called Bleichröder "Bismarck's Jew".[18]

Soon, more luxury hotels and villas were built in Opatija, and a railway line was extended in 1873 from the Vienna–Trieste line to Rijeka (Fiume), making it possible to go by tram from there to Opatija. The strong increase of port traffic generated a permanent demand for expansion.[19] The Suez Canal was opened in 1869.[20] 1875–1890 became "the golden years" of Giovanni de Ciotta in Rijeka.

The crash is central in the 1877 novel The Breaking of the Storm by the German writer Friedrich Spielhagen. A portrayal of German business life in the 1870s, the literary scholar Jeffrey L. Sammons has described it as "the major fictional treatment of the financial crash of the 1870s as a harbinger of the predatory but erratic capitalism that was to become characteristic of the Reich".[21]

The opening of the Suez Canal was one of the causes of the Panic of 1873 because goods from the Far East had previously been carried in sailing vessels around the Cape of Good Hope and had been stored in British warehouses. As sailing vessels were not adaptable for use through the Suez Canal (because the prevailing winds of the Mediterranean Sea blow from west to east), the British entrepôt trade suffered.[22]

When the crisis came, the Bank of England raised interest rates to 9 percent. Despite this, Britain did not experience the scale of financial mayhem seen in America and Central Europe, perhaps forestalled by an expectation that the liquidity-constraining provisions of the Bank Charter Act 1844 would be suspended as they had been in the crises of 1847, 1857, and 1866. The ensuing economic downturn in Britain seems to have been muted – "stagnant" but without a "decline in aggregate output".[23] However, there was heavy unemployment in the basic industries of coal, iron and steel, engineering, and shipbuilding, especially in 1873, 1886, and 1893.[1]

Comparison with Germany

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From 1873 to 1896, a period sometimes referred to as the Long Depression, most European countries experienced a drastic fall in prices. Still, many corporations were able to reduce production costs and achieve better productivity rates with industrial production increasing by 40% in Britain and by over 100% in Germany.[citation needed] A comparison of capital formation rates in both countries helps to account for the different industrial growth rates. During the depression, the British ratio of net national capital formation to net national product fell from 11.5% to 6.0%, but the German ratio rose from 10.6% to 15.9%.[citation needed] Britain took the course of static supply adjustment, but Germany stimulated effective demand and expanded industrial supply capacity by increasing and adjusting capital formation. For example, Germany dramatically increased investment of social overhead capital, such as in the management of electric power transmission lines, roads, and railroads, thereby stimulating industrial demand in that country, but similar investment stagnated or decreased in Britain. The resulting difference in capital formation accounts for the divergent levels of industrial production in the two countries and the different growth rates during and after the depression.[24]

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