For decades, higher education was one of America’s most reliable job machines. That machine just went into reverse.

BLS publishes no single higher-ed series, but two categories together cover the sector. State government education is essentially public higher ed — public universities are state institutions, while K‑12 schools belong to local school districts. Private colleges & universities covers every private degree-granting institution. Together: 4.4 million jobs.

Both are now shrinking. The combined total peaked in January 2025 and has fallen 95,000 since — public down 55,000, private down 40,000. Meanwhile K‑12 employment (dashed line) keeps drifting up, and overall hiring has firmed. This is specific to higher ed.

The timing tells you why. The turn came precisely with the federal research funding cuts of early 2025, followed by hiring freezes across dozens of universities and a 17% drop in new international enrollment — students who disproportionately pay full tuition.

Behind the policy shock sits a slower force: the population of 18-year-olds peaked in 2025 and will shrink for a decade. Don’t expect a rebound like the one after 2020.

Some employment declines are made by technology. This one was made in Washington.

Source: BLS