Senior meteorologist Matthew Cappucci of private weather forecaster MyRadarWX is monitoring the potential for isolated tornadoes along the Interstate 95 corridor, from areas north of Washington, D.C., through Baltimore and Wilmington, Delaware, and into the Philadelphia metro area.
Tornadoes are not unheard of in the Mid-Atlantic, but a potential setup later this afternoon capable of producing multiple tornadoes across a large swath of Maryland, Delaware, and southeastern Pennsylvania would be unusual.
"Mid-Atlantic gang – can't rule out an isolated tornado this afternoon embedded within/ahead of a developing squall line. There's just enough low-level easterly winds to bolster spin. Brief tornado possible IF southward-sagging front doesn't undercut storms too quickly," Cappucci wrote on X earlier this morning.
MyRadarWX posted for the Mid-Atlantic region:
We're closely monitoring the risk of an isolated tornado or two in the Mid-Atlantic, including along/east of I-95. While a squall line is likely to form, concern is growing that a couple supercell structure may evolve ahead of the line and produce a tornado or two. Subtle influences, like the bay breeze, may provide an additional source of low-level spin. The main wildcard is how quickly a southward-advancing cold front moves. Too quick, and it could undercut storms/sweep them into a non-tornadic line. A bit slower, however, and easterly surface winds ahead of it could bolster low-level spin, increasing tornado risk.
MyRadarWX's timing of the incoming storm for the region, with a possible "isolated EF2+ 'significant' tornado," is for Thursday afternoon.
D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia and Dover – the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded our tornado risk today, Thursday afternoon, August 20. While only a couple tornadoes are possible, the atmosphere could support an isolated EF2+ "significant" tornado. That would be predicated on the formation of a supercell or two (rotating thunderstorms) ahead of an eventual squall line. The greatest chance is in northeastern Maryland, southeast Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey or the northern Delmarva. Low probability, but high impact if it happens.
The National Weather Service tornado scale states that an EF2 tornado can tear roofs off homes, destroy mobile homes, snap large trees, and turn debris into dangerous projectiles. MyRadarWX's risk forecast is not an official warning from the National Weather Service.