我们哪儿也不会去。
We are not going anywhere

原始链接: https://gist.github.com/omeid/a9d6d1e3c25cb3aa577931e60e006f54

软件开发的未来正日益由人工智能驱动。尽管人工智能生成的代码偶尔不够完美,但企业将优先考虑成本效益,宁可接受“足够好”的结果,也不愿为绝对的精确性支付高昂成本。随着消费者期望逐渐适应这一新标准,软件工程的发展轨迹正在发生根本性转变。 该领域将出现分化:作为科学的软件工程,其重心将几乎完全收窄至推动人工智能自身的发展。与此同时,传统领域的创新——例如新的 UI 库或编程语言——将陷入停滞。由于最先进的模型已针对 React、Python 和 JavaScript 等现有的主流技术进行了优化,新工具将难以获得关注或建立必要的开发者社区。除非大型企业有资源在内部专有技术栈上训练自有模型,否则整个行业都将倾向于那些由全球人工智能模型所支持的既定生态系统。我们已走到无法回头的地步:软件开发不再是关于人类主导的发明创造,而是通过人工智能来维护和完善现有的数字基础设施。

这篇 Hacker News 讨论聚焦于人工智能在主流编程语言和框架中的主导地位是否会抑制技术创新。 一种观点认为,随着 AI 模型在主流语言(如 Python 或 React)上变得愈发精通,开发者可能会失去创造新工具的动力。然而,主流的反驳观点是,技术创新的驱动力源于人类的好奇心以及解决复杂、独特问题的渴望,而不仅仅是出于效率。参与者认为,开发者会持续创造新的语言和框架,仅仅是因为他们觉得这些挑战很有趣。 此外,该讨论帖指出,人工智能实际上可能会加速创新;如果公司利用 AI 来解决内部扩展或优化问题,这可能会促成更优越、定制化工具的开发。归根结底,共识在于:只要人类仍然受到有趣的技术问题的驱动,软件的演进就会持续下去,而无论 AI 对现有标准的掌握程度如何。
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原文

This might sound obvious, but it is worth putting it down, Software Development going forward will be largely done by AIs, you might find the quality subpar, but in terms of cost ratio, it is commercially good enough. Business will accept 99.99 at fraction of cost of 99.999. It is all about general consumer expectations, which will shift.

But most of all, not just that we are not going back, we are also not going anywhere. Software Engineering as science will be largely dedicated to AI development and outside of this discipline, it will slow down to a grinding halt.

No one is going to write new UI libraries if SOTA models know React best, no one is going to bother with new languages if SOTA models know Python, Go, JavaScript, and so on the best.

Yes, it will be easier for people to build new libraries and languages, but they won't gain traction. This might be different for large corporations who can afford to train and finetune models on their new fangled technology, but that will be the exception, and likely struggle with building a community and talent pool outside of this developing organisation as other people may not fancy using or even have access to their internal models.

We are not going back, we are not going anywhere.

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