我的生意快不行了
My Business Is Dying

原始链接: https://bankstatementconverter.com/blog/posts/2026-08-28-business-is-dying/

自 2026 年 2 月达到顶峰以来,作者的应用呈现稳步下滑趋势,营收下降了 24%,MRR(月经常性收入)下降了 12%。主要原因是新订阅用户持续减少,这种情况在作者停止“公开构建”后不久便开始出现。潜在原因包括人工智能工具导致的市场饱和、竞争加剧以及缺乏主动营销。 为了扭转这一颓势并避免重蹈先前项目失败的覆辙,作者计划采取果断行动,而非停滞不前。复苏策略包括: * **数据驱动的用户留存:** 分析 Stripe 的退订原因,并实施自动化的后续跟进邮件以收集反馈。 * **精准营销:** 将重点转向长青内容营销(如播客和视频赞助),并探索在香港进行本地化实体广告投放。 * **产品优化:** 利用客户支持互动来确定功能更新的优先级,特别是提升文档转换的处理速度和用户体验。 作者决心坚守独立开发者身份,致力于通过改进产品以保持竞争力,并明确拒绝重返企业职场,专注于扭转业务困局。

Hacker News 正在讨论一篇题为《我的生意快不行了》的文章,作者是 `bankstatementconverter.com` 的创始人。用户们在探讨小型 SaaS 企业在 AI 时代和订阅疲劳背景下所面临的挑战。 主要议题包括: * **AI 的取代效应:** 许多评论者认为,该服务正面临能执行类似任务的 AI 工具的竞争。因此有人建议,与其与 AI 竞争,不如转型为 AI 智能体提供 API 服务。 * **“订阅疲劳”因素:** 用户指出,消费者越来越不愿意为偶尔使用的工具(如银行对账单转换)支付定期费用。 * **内容营销与真实性:** 大家一致认为互联网正充斥着“AI 垃圾内容”,这使得真实的人类创作内容更具价值。不过,也有用户批评创始人将精力放在写博客上,而非优化产品落地页。 * **市场情绪:** 虽然一些评论者对该产品的“护城河”持悲观态度,但另一些人鼓励创始人,指出即使是少量忠实用户也能维持盈利,且“陷入困境”的企业对潜在买家或投资者而言,往往具有潜在价值。
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原文

Revenue and Monthly Recurring Revenue are down significantly since we peaked in February 2026.

Revenue is down 24% since February 2026.

Monthly Recurring Revenue is down 12% since February 2026.

This has happened to me before with an application I made called Girlfriend Plus. In 2017 revenue spiked, but I didn’t do much development on the app. Pretty quickly revenue dropped off. Today it basically makes no money.

Why is this happening?

It’s probably because more people are cancelling subscriptions and fewer people are buying subscriptions. Let’s take a look at the data.

Month MRR Growth ($HKD)
January 2026 $9,585
February 2026 $10,074
March 2026 $228
April 2026 -$7,890
May 2026 -$15
June 2026 -$5,708
July 2026 -$19,960
August 2026 -$5,320

Okay it looks like MRR growth has turned negative since April this year. But why?

Month New Subscribers
January 2026 191
February 2026 184
March 2026 173
April 2026 157
May 2026 128
June 2026 95
July 2026 78
August 2026 45

The rate of cancellation is about the same, however the amount of new subscribers per month has been dropping since February 2026.

Why are we getting fewer new subscribers? I don’t really know, but here are some possibilities.

I stopped building in public. I haven’t posted a revenue graph on Twitter since September 2025. Sharing revenue data is a good way to get attention on Twitter, but for this business the Twitter attention doesn’t really translate into sales. I stopped sharing revenue data because a lot of people started using AI to build their own bank statement converter applications.

People are using AI to convert their bank statements. This works pretty well if you only have a few pages of bank statements to convert. If you have hundreds of pages, then you’ll need to pay for AI to do the conversion. AI chat bots can convert PDF to Excel files, but they’re slower and more expensive. I have a feeling a lot of users are using free tier AI chatbots to do their conversions.

One of my competitors is much better. I have a lot of competitors, because I built this application in public. Perhaps one of them is doing a much better job than I am and is taking away all my customers.

What am I going to do about it?

I’m going to keep working on it. Last time my business failed I think it was because I didn’t do anything about it.

In 2015, I read Founders At Work and was really impressed by the section featuring Evan Williams and Blogger.com. I don’t totally remember what happened, but I think they raised money to start Blogger, ran out of money. Everyone left or was fired and it got down to just Evan working by himself. Somehow he was able to turn it around and eventually he sold Blogger to Google.

Analysing cancellation reasons

When a user cancels a subscription Stripe asks them for a reason. At the moment I don’t really do anything with the cancellation reason, actually this is the first time I’ve ever looked at the data. I’m going to start sending follow up emails after a user cancels, depending on their cancellation reason. For example if a user cancels because they switched service, I can ask them which service they switched to, and what was it about that service they preferred.

Do some marketing

My favourite type of marketing is content marketing. All forms of marketing have a cost, but content marketing is the only form of marketing that can last forever. I don’t really like spending money on cost-per-click advertising platforms because the prices are really high and you only benefit from it while you’re paying for ads.

I want to try out some physical real world marketing channels like tram and bus ads in Hong Kong. I also feel like podcast and YouTube video advertising can be good. The benefit is you pay once and the video lasts forever. So if the video you advertise on is evergreen, then your ad should be as well. I’ve contacted a few podcasters and YouTubers but so far no one has replied.

Talk to users

I still get a lot of customer support messages from users. I’ll keep doing the support and trying to think of features based on the problems they’re facing. The other day a user thought a scanned document was failing to process because it said “Processing” for a very long time. That gave me two ideas. Speed up the processing for scanned documents. Show progress information for scanned documents. “Processing page 22/99”.

Get a job?

Hell no. Last time I worked at a company was November 2020. I love programming, but I really do not enjoy programming at a company. Things were bad in 2020, but I feel like they’re worse now. My friends tell me the job is basically managing AI agents and reading Pull Requests. That sounds like hell, and I’ll try to avoid it for as long as possible.

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