Speculation has abounded over the nature of CIA Director John Ratcliffe's surprise Tuesday trip to Moscow and what was conveyed to top Kremlin intelligence officials.
The 'official' Washington narrative of what was behind the trip was issued on Wednesday in the pages of The Wall Street Journal, which laid out Ratcliffe delivered a "warning to Russia not to attack NATO countries, according to people briefed on the visit."
Since then, media reports and pundits have mused that nearby small 'eastern flank' countries like Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania could be prime targets for some kind of Russian military action, at a moment Europe's support to Kiev has steadily ramped up.
Surprisingly, on Thursday former Estonian president Toomas Hendrik Ilves (president: 2006 – 2016), who remains influential voice in the European security debate and has served on an EU task force, told a European outlet that the CIA director's meeting was more likely centered on the Iran conflict and not on warning against attacking Europe.
Ilves in a freshly published interview with EuroNews said he had "severe doubts" that concerns over aggression against the Baltic states were the reason for Ratcliffe's visit.
"What is the real problem for the United States right now? The real problem is Iran, the fact that the Russians are giving targeting information to the Iranians," he said.
"Those are real problems for the United States, and that would be sufficient to warrant the director of the CIA to go to Moscow to tell them to back off."
US intelligence and Trump officials for months have alleged that Russia is likely helping Iranian forces with identifying and locating US military assets in the region. At times throughout Operation Epic Fury, Tehran appears to have even targeted CIA stations.
The bulk of American military assets and bases in the Gulf countries have suffered severe damage earlier in the conflict, resulting in a Pentagon troop drawback to safer areas. This is indeed a big deal if it is the case that Russia or China (or both) have handed the Iranians intel to help push back American bases and forces.
Former Estonian leader Ilves further explained that in reality there had been "no change in the US’s threat assessment for the Baltic states."
"If the purpose was to go and genuinely tell the Russians not to do anything in the Baltic states, as was claimed, then there would be some kind of activity here," he underscored.
Also, Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna announced Thursday that the country’s threat assessment had "not changed". Tsahkna said: "We remain vigilant, but Estonia’s threat assessment has not changed."
Ilves concluded in his comments that the official narrative is but cover for the real reason underlying Ratcliff's visit.
Skepticism has been widely voiced among independent journalists and pundits:
"I don’t think it’s a false flag, but rather just kind of make something up to divert attention from what is the real problem that the US faces right now," the Estonian ex-President said.