加拿大左翼人士意图将五大湖航道作为对付美国的武器
Canadian Leftists Want To Use Great Lakes Seaway As A Weapon Against The US

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/canadian-leftists-want-use-great-lakes-seaway-weapon-against-us

这篇文章认为,加拿大近期放弃与美国进行有利的贸易谈判,是一项由“极左”民众支持、出于政治动机且自毁前程的举动。作者指出,尽管该贸易协议极为有利,但马克·卡尼(Mark Carney)很可能是在美国民主党或欧洲利益集团的压力下退出了谈判。 文中警告称,加拿大高度依赖美国市场,其出口总额的78%销往美国。作者认为,加拿大试图利用能源出口或圣劳伦斯海道通行费等作为“筹码”的做法不仅徒劳,更是对经济现实的误解。作者断言,美国在这些领域占据主导地位,加拿大任何参与经济“贸易战”的企图都可能引发严重的国内经济衰退。因此,作者呼吁公开此次失败贸易谈判的细节,并敦促加拿大领导层认清自身缺乏筹码的事实,以免进一步损害国家经济。

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原文

If anyone had any doubt that Canada is a predominantly far-left country, one only need look at polls in support of Market Carney's trade war rhetoric against the US.  Over 70% of the Canadian population is currently in support of Carney's decision to dismiss trade negotiations with the Trump Administration. 

Much of the rhetoric online repeats leftist talking points, including the claim that America is now a "fascist" state and cutting a deal with Trump would be the same as "cutting a deal with the Third Reich".      

Keep in mind, Carney was so close to a deal with the US that Trump had paused new tariffs and Carney asked premiers to put American liquor back on provincial shelves.  The was two days before he abruptly backed out and abandoned any future talks.  Why?  Theories abound. 

The most prominent theory being that Carney has been talking with US Democrats and was convinced to avoid cutting a deal with Trump before the midterm elections in November.  Any deal would be seen as a win for Trump that might boost Republicans. 

Other theories cite potential foreign influence from the EU.  Carney was on vacation in Italy just before the negotiations were to finalize and he engaged in a flurry of meetings and calls with European officials just after his trade war decision.  Leftists governments in Europe and communists in China have much to gain by continued tensions between Canada and the US. 

It should be noted that the full text of the deal still has not been released to the Canadian public for review.  Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre called on the Prime Minister to release details of the failed trade deal with the United States and reconvene parliament. 

“We need to see the deal that we rejected. Canadians have not seen it,” said Poilievre.       

Whatever may have happened to convince Carney to walk away from the best tariff deal that was offered to any country, the aftermath has stirred plenty of Canadian citizens into a hostile frenzy.  One is reminded of Scrappy Doo, yipping and yapping and nipping at the heals of a much larger opponent in the delusion that this will accomplish something. 

In the meantime, 33% of Canada's GDP relies on exports and 78% of those exports rely on US markets.  Furthermore, there are no practical alternatives.  Without a near-term deal with the US, Canada faces severe recession, or worse.  Canadian officials and the public have not yet come to accept this reality.  They have been busy conjuring ways to "hurt" the US, but these tactics are based on an ignorance of the bigger picture. 

For example, Canadian officials recommended shutting off electric supplies to the US eastern seaboard.  However, Canada provides less than 1% of all US electricity.  Meaning, they have no leverage. 

They also called for a shutdown of oil exports to the US, but the US is a net exporter of oil and the largest oil producer in the world.  Going without Canadian oil would cause prices to rise, but it would not do the kind of damage they are hoping for.  Trump's latest landmark deal with Venezuela will mitigate any potential supply disruptions from Canada.    

Plus, 70% of Canadian oil traveling from Alberta to Ontario uses pipelines that cross into US territory (the Enbridge Mainline).  It would be a disaster for them to escalate. 

This brings us to the newest ingenious idea from Canadian leftists, which is to shut down US access to the St. Lawrence Seaway from the Great Lakes to the Atlantic Ocean.  Or, increase tolls to crippling levels at the various Canadian controlled locks. 

There is a problem with this plan, though.  First, Canada already charges tolls at these locks and has done so for decades.  

On the other hand, the US also controls at least two locks on the same waterway which Canadian ships use regularly.  The US government waived collection of tolls on the seaway back in 1986.  Meaning Canada is the only country that collects tolls, but this could be easily changed.  If Canada tried to charge higher tolls or block access, the US could to do the same, and the US has the actual military resources to enforce such measures.  

By extension, if Canada tried to initiate a wider resource war against the US, their oil pipelines going through the US could be cut off.  Once again, Canada simply has no economic leverage.  The sooner they accept this, the sooner they can avoid a painful economic decline.     

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