新订单下降,但美国制造业调查显示 8 月份增长依然“稳健”
New Orders Drop But US Manufacturing Surveys Still Signal 'Solid' Growth In August

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/new-orders-drop-us-manufacturing-surveys-still-signal-solid-growth-august

美国制造业仍处于变动状态。八月的数据呈现出好坏参半的局面:标普全球(S&P Global)的PMI数据为53.9,好于预期;而ISM制造业PMI降至54.6,低于预期。尽管ISM的整体表现依然强劲,但两项指数均显示新订单有所放缓。 该行业在健康度方面面临持续的“裂痕”,主要受供应链中断、材料短缺,以及地缘政治紧张局势和关税带来的成本上升所驱动。虽然积极的库存建立支撑了增长,但经济学家警告称,通胀压力和交付延迟正对产出造成影响。 不过,前景并非完全黯淡。美国制造业者仍持谨慎乐观态度,商业信心达到三个月来的高点。市场普遍怀有希望,认为区域稳定和更清晰的政策路径最终将缓解当前的负担。两份报告之间持续存在分歧信号,尤其是在就业和价格数据方面,使得该行业的真实状态仍有待解读。尽管行业处于扩张之中,但显然正面临重大的运营阻力。

相关文章

原文

Despite sustained relative weakness in US 'hard data', US manufacturing operating conditions improved solidly again in August, according to the latest PMI data from S&P Global, but it's not all rainbows and unicorns...

  • August S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI beat, flat at 53.9 from July's print, but up from the flash print of 53.2 and better than the 53.4 expected.

  • August ISM US Manufacturing PMI miss, down from 55.6 to 54.6 (below 55.2 expectations).

Still, despite the miss, ISM still printed near four year highs, with growth moderating only slightly.

However, ISM saw New Orders and Employment dropped in August (with Prices only flat month over month)...

“Growth in the US manufacturing economy remained welcome," said Usamah Bhatti, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, but he warns "the August data point to some cracks in the sector’s health."

Data covering most of the second quarter and the period to August indicated that stock building was a key driver of sustained growth in manufacturing output and demand.

Moreover, Bhatti notes that "both output and new order growth slowed in August amid concerns that further price rises and material shortages would weigh on the sector."

Indeed, although purchasing activity and pre-production inventories increased further, "manufacturers continued to report difficulties sourcing and receiving raw materials because of supply delays and price rises."

These pressures were commonly linked to the war in the Middle East, which has exacerbated existing supply and inflationary pressures from tariffs.

There were, however, areas of encouragement for US goods producers.

Business expectations for output over the year ahead improved from July to a three-month high, partly reflecting hopes for an end to the war and a smoother domestic policy path.

Firms also noted that "greater stability in conditions were likely to support business expansion and customer retention plans."

In response, businesses raised employment at the strongest rate seen so far this year.

So choose your own adventure again -  both ISM and S&P Global saw orders drop, but ISM saw employment drop and prices flat while S&P Global saw prices drop and employment improve...?!

联系我们 contact @ memedata.com