With the US national average for gasoline above the politically sensitive $4-per-gallon level and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index signaling waning household confidence as summer enters its final innings, pressure is building across the consumer complex.
Goldman Sachs' Scott Feiler warned Tuesday that consumer stocks have suffered several difficult weeks of underperformance, while investor exposure to the sector has collapsed to multi-year lows.
Feiler explained:
Worse Under the Hood: Consumer stocks have had a tough run the last few weeks. The Retail group was -6.5% in August and underperformed the market by over 5%. It has felt a bit worse than that under the surface, given many of the historically owned/quality/growth names have seen sell-offs of 10% to 50%. A list of 10 of these stocks and a few tactical thoughts on each are below...
More importantly, Feiler cited Goldman's prime brokerage data, which show that gross exposure to retail stocks has plunged to a multi-year low, signaling that hedge funds have reduced their exposure this year. The reduction in exposure likely stems from higher gasoline and diesel prices at the pump, combined with elevated inflation, dampening household confidence.
The 10 pullbacks from peak summer prices highlighted by Feiler include:
- Dick's Sporting Goods: -45%
- Burlington Stores: -32%
- On Holding: -30%
- Tapestry: -26%
- Walmart: -23%
- Viking Holdings: -22%
- TJX Companies: -21%
- Ralph Lauren: -19%
- Hilton Worldwide: -14%
- Ross Stores: -13%
Goldman consumer stocks versus AAA retail gasoline
For more on Feiler's tactical views on the 10 names above, Professional subscribers can read the full note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.