中国各省份显现出财政压力与经济失衡的迹象
China's Provinces Show Evidence Of Financial Pressure And The Economy's Imbalances

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/chinas-provinces-show-evidence-financial-pressure-and-economys-imbalances

根据中国财政部的数据,28个省级行政区越来越依赖北京来填补不断扩大的预算缺口,这标志着严重的系统性失衡。今年第一季度的数据显示,即便是像上海这样的富裕地区也难以实现预算自给自足,北京目前被迫承担了大多数省份一半的支出。 这种财政压力凸显了20世纪90年代分税制改革的失败,该改革曾极大地促使地方对波动剧烈的房地产市场产生依赖。随着该行业陷入危机,传统的收入模式已经崩溃。 作者认为,这些财政困境反映了中国经济更广泛的收缩。通过优先发展国家支持的高科技产业(如“中国制造2025”倡议下的产业),而牺牲私人投资和国内消费,北京培育了一个日益脆弱且依赖出口的经济体。填补这些省级预算缺口将耗资约10.5万亿元人民币,占中央政府总预算的三分之一以上,这凸显了中国经济结构调整所面临挑战的严峻性。

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原文

Authored by Milton Ezrati via The Epoch Times,

Some 28 provinces and separate jurisdictions increasingly have had to turn to Beijing for help closing budget gaps, according to China's Ministry of Finance.

People walk next to a screen with a stocks indicator in the Jing'an district in Shanghai, China, on April 7, 2025. Hector Retamal/AFP via Getty Images

It is not unusual for Beijing to have to chip in. It gets the lion's share of the country's tax revenues. But the growing need to turn to Beijing nonetheless points to the economy's imbalances and other problems.

Some transfers from Beijing have occurred since the country's tax-sharing reforms were implemented in the 1990s. Beijing gets all income tax revenues from both individuals and companies, all securities trading levies, and all customs duties.

Provinces and like entities must depend almost entirely on deed and land appreciation taxes. Even during the boom years of property development, some provinces needed help. Few had what the Chinese call budgetary "self-sufficiency ratios" at 100 percent.

Outlining the most recent data from this year's first quarter, the deputy director general of the finance ministry's budget department, Tang Zaifu, downplayed the troubling direction of provincial finances. The figures, however, make clear that self-sufficiency has deteriorated and dependency has grown.

Now, Beijing must cover half the budget needs of the 22 provinces under its control and an additional five separate jurisdictions. (Beijing claims 23 provinces, but one, Taiwan, manages its own budget and obviously is not subject to the People's Republic of China's governance.)

The needs of this large number of jurisdictions vary greatly. It is significant, however, that even Shanghai - one of the country's richest areas - failed to meet its own budget needs during this year's opening quarter - this for the first time since the pandemic.

Some areas have done comparatively well. Zhejiang, for instance, managed a self-sufficiency ratio of just over 96 percent. Other rich areas, such as Shandong and Guangdong provinces, showed self-sufficiency ratios exceeding 70 percent.

Other areas did less well, a lot less well. Filling all the budget gaps will cost Beijing some 10.5 trillion yuan, more than a third of the government's entire budget.

Though arcane in many respects, these budget needs and burdens offer yet other perspectives on the imbalances in China's economy and finances.

The first point that becomes clear is how much China's economic reality has changed since the still-prevailing budget reform rules of the 1990s. Those revenue-sharing arrangements, implicitly dependent on a booming property development sector, are simply no longer viable. The still-ongoing property crisis has thoroughly reordered the economy.

These budget figures also point, albeit obliquely, to how narrowly focused China's economy has become. The only reliable growth lies in the mostly high-technology sectors favored by Beijing's "Made in China 2025" program.

Broad-based development has received short shrift, including the Chinese consumer and investments in other, mostly privately owned sectors, making China's economy narrower and more export-dependent than ever.

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