Brent crude futures topped $100 a barrel for the first time since July as US strikes on Iranian oil tankers and renewed attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure and a US base in Jordan suggested to UBS energy specialist Dominic Ellis that a "US-Iran off-ramp remains elusive."
Ellis adds more color on the overnight Gulf developments and response in the crude oil market:
Brent topped $100/bbl as the US and Iran continue to trade strikes around the Strait of Hormuz.
The US says it has destroyed multiple Iranian vessels (including 5 on Sept. 8) in response to Iranian attacks, and says it will respond to each subsequent Iranian hit (actual or attempted) by destroying another Iranian tanker.
Iran hit a US base in Jordan, and has stepped up attacks on the US' regional allies, with Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure under particular pressure.
Some investors have shown signs of wanting to fade the rally in oil and related equities, but the change in tone from all concerned makes it seem less likely (if not impossible) that we will see a return to the de-escalation narrative that has historically triggered a drop in oil and profit-taking in equities.
With the tailwind into Q3 numbers for the integrated energy sector, I think most will be inclined to leave long positions open until there is evidence of real progress back toward a diplomatic off ramp.
Iran has reportedly rejected the latest US offer of talks, and the conflict seems likely to support oil at current levels and potentially push prices higher in the near term.
The global crude benchmark broke above $100 a barrel in European trading but initially failed to hold the level. Just over an hour later, at around 4:36 a.m. ET, Brent reclaimed triple digits and extended gains to $100.83 by around 6:00 a.m. ET.
Goldman's head commodity strategist, Daan Struyven, wrote in a note on Monday that, given the renewed turmoil in the Gulf region, he raised his Brent/WTI price forecasts by $5 to $85/$80 for December 2026 and to $80/$75 for 2027, on the assumption that Mideast shipping disruptions continue into 2027.
Struyven outlined significant net upside price risks with two Gulf output and Brent scenarios:
- Price upside scenario: Brent might exceed $120/bbl if 2027 average Gulf output remains 4mb/d below pre-war levels, versus 0.5mb/d below in the base case. The bank views more intense shipping attacks in Hormuz and the Red Sea as the most likely driver of this lower-output, higher-price scenario.
- Price downside scenario: Brent might decline into the $60s in 2027 if 2027 average Gulf output rises 1mb/d above pre-war levels. Goldman still recommends hedging geopolitical risk through deferred Mar27-Dec27 European diesel timespreads, which would rise over 100% if persistent Russia or Mideast refinery outages keep the nearby 9-month spread near current levels.
Separately, Darrell Fletcher, managing director for commodities at Bannockburn Capital Markets, warned that the "path of least resistance is a strong and steady grind higher as the war enters seven months," adding, "The fundamental picture for products remains bullish with global inventories and reserves deteriorating. In the typical pattern, the US and Iran continue their counterattacks and warnings."