Disclaimer and thanks to reviewers
v1.0 of the Econ Scenario Explorer, September 2026
The economic scenario explorer is currently Version 1.0. Like every model, it is a stark simplification of a complex reality: it isolates a few key forces and omits many others that may become relevant and important in the coming years. For example, it leaves out policy responses, business cycles, potential aggregate demand or financial market disruptions, and possible catastrophic risks. The scenario explorer is a work in progress, and we expect it to evolve both as we invest more time and as economic research itself develops.
We are grateful to the economists who read an early draft of the technical report that lays out the framework behind the explorer, Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI, and gave us detailed comments: Daron Acemoglu, Lukas Althoff, David Autor, Tom Cunningham, Lukas Freund, Joe Hazell, Ben Jones, Pete Klenow, Danial Lashkari, Kurt Mitman, Ben Moll, Emi Nakamura, Pascual Restrepo, David Romer, Jón Steinsson, Chris Tonetti, Ludo Visschers, and David Wiczer. Their feedback was generous and candid, and it has already improved our model. Two examples: several reviewers noted that advances in AI may raise the returns to capital, so that more of the gains flow to the owners of capital; and several noted that the wages of workers in the occupations AI affects most may diverge from those in occupations it barely affects. Both channels are now part of the scenarios. External reviewers were not asked to endorse our conclusions, and any remaining errors are ours.
Other criticisms are still open, and we plan to address many of them in future versions. Reviewers pointed out that the model does not follow individual workers, so it can only paint a very coarse picture of the costs of job displacement. Some questioned whether occupations exposed to AI will shrink at all rather than grow. Some felt the most extreme scenario is better read as a thought experiment than a scenario, while others felt the most modest one understates what is already visible in the data. Several asked us to be clearer that the model does not include the aggregate demand effects driven by the data center buildout. And more than one reviewer argued that we may be underestimating how much AI could accelerate technological progress itself. We agree that many of these are limitations of the current model. The scenario explorer should be viewed as a tool for thinking about what different technological developments would imply for the economy—actual outcomes may differ materially.
Anton Korinek, Chad Jones, Szymon Sacher, Tess Cotter, and Peter McCrory developed the economic model and co-authored the companion technical report. Santi Ruiz wrote this piece with them, with editorial support from Sarah Pollack and Adam Farina. Kelsey Nanan designed and built the interactive experience, with visual design and art direction by Nikki Makagiansar and Monika Tuchowska; Kyle Turman and Szymon Sacher built the scenario explorer and led the translation of the model into interactive form; Fayaz Ashraf and Ryan Heller contributed engineering, and Kim Withee and Maria Gonzalez supported production. Szymon Sacher and Tess Cotter designed and fielded the accompanying surveys with Morning Consult, with support from Ben Fowler. Peter McCrory, Anton Korinek, and Charles Yang coordinated the project, and Jack Clark provided direction throughout. Miriam Chaum, Jack Clark, Saffron Huang, Maxim Massenkoff, and Peter McCrory helped originate this effort. Jim Baker, Shan Carter, Johannes Hermle, Zoë Hitzig, and Eva Lyubich provided feedback.