最后24小时是恐怖片的开场戏
The Last 24 Hours Are the Opening Scene in a Horror Movie

原始链接: https://www.honest-broker.com/p/the-last-24-hours-are-the-opening

科技行业正发生重大转变,来自OpenAI、Anthropic和谷歌等公司的一众知名人工智能科学家公开对人工智能可能带来的生存威胁发出警告。最初仅是个别人员辞职并警告AI可能对人类构成灾难性威胁,如今已迅速演变为一场由首席科学家和研究人员等专家参与的协调行动,他们证实这种担忧在技术构建者中非常普遍。 将这些警告斥为公关噱头或阴谋论已愈发站不住脚,因为内部人士对所涉风险有着独特而深入的了解。专家们认为,当前AI的发展轨迹十分鲁莽,已非个体开发者所能掌控。这种内部的“抵抗”凸显了一个关键转折点,发出了绝望的行动呼吁。随着数万亿美元注入这项“失控的技术”,技术创造者们如今正恳求全球当局进行干预。他们警告称,若无立即、高层级的监管,世界将面临严重后果;这些专家认为,他们的忧虑反映了一种不容忽视的共识。

这篇 Hacker News 的讨论批评了关于“人工智能模型目前具备自我复制或独立生存能力”的论调,许多评论者认为将“人工智能”比作恐怖电影情节的叙事方式过于夸张。 参与者指出,目前最先进的人工智能模型在物理上依赖于庞大的中心化 GPU 集群,与生物威胁相比,它们极易被“关闭”。怀疑论者认为,科技巨头可能正在夸大灾难性风险,以获取有利的监管政策、扼杀小型竞争对手,并从新兴的人工智能安全市场中获利。 另一些人探讨了研究人员在构建其声称“具有危险性”的系统时所表现出的认知失调,质疑这究竟是源于真实的担忧,还是陷入了极端假设的偏见泡沫。讨论将其与 20 世纪 80 年代的核焦虑进行了类比,指出尽管人工智能的风险尚存争议,但当前的恐慌情绪可能更多是受利润动机和企业营销驱动,而非基于技术现实。最终,贡献者们呼吁进行更广泛的跨学科监督,并指出科技界封闭的文化阻碍了外界对这些日益强大的系统进行有效的批评。
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原文

The events of the last 24 hours are stunning. And not in a good way. Nothing like this has ever happened in the history of tech, and it’s unfolding right now.

Here’s a start. Maybe you’ve already heard about the guy who resigned from OpenAI. He warned that the technology could kill everybody before the end of the decade.

He made this announcement just 20 hours ago:

Is this really true? Maybe Coxon is just a disgruntled employee. We need to find out what other insiders think.

As if in answer to this question, another AI scientist—Evan Hubinger at Anthropic—quickly moved to endorse Coxon’s concerns.

Then Alex Turner, who recently left Google, said the exact same thing.

Here’s what Anna Wang at Anthropic has to say.

Samuel Marks, a Harvard PhD who works at Anthropic, offered more details—but comes to the same conclusion.

Jason Wolfe at OpenAI is also worried.

Here’s what Jonathan Richard Schwarz, formerly with Google, has to say.

And, finally, here is what Jakub Pachocki the Chief Scientist at OpenAI, tells us:

Last month, in my article “Ten Brutally Honest Predictions on the Future of AI,” I said that the next phase of backlash would come from within the tech community itself. The last 24 hours will be remembered as the moment when this definitively happened—when an inside resistance cohered into an actual movement. I think it’s safe to say that this is not a passing interlude, but a drawing of future battle lines.

The AI fanboys are trying to defuse this situation. But their responses fall apart at the slightest touch. Consider the smear that this is just a PR campaign. Really? Others are hinting it could be a Chinese plot. Yeah, sure….

But the biggest lie is the claim that these people don’t know what they are talking about. The reality is that they understand this subject better than anybody.

What’s happening here is obvious—eight different people building this technology are afraid of what they’re seeing. But they don’t have the power individually to stop the insanity.

If this isn’t a call to action, I don’t know what is. Trillions of dollars are getting pumped into a runaway technology, and the public already hates it intensely. Now the people making it happen are warning it just might kill everybody.

This demands a response from the highest circles of power and authority. If that doesn’t happen, we will live to regret this inaction. And that’s the best case scenario. The worst is that there won’t be anyone left to regret a thing.

POSTSCRIPT:

Since publishing this article earlier today, several other AI insiders have stepped forward to share their concerns about the tremendous risk posed by this technology.

Let me share three of them. Here’s the first—from Ethan Perez at Anthropic.

And here’s another, from Julie Steele at OpenAI.

And here’s a third, from Drake Thomas at Anthropic.

This makes clear at how widespread these concerns are inside the AI community. And, in fact, these individuals keep repeating that they are merely expressing views widely shared by their colleagues.

In the face of this, any claim that this is some kind of stunt or smear campaign is easily refuted. Not a single insider has stepped forward to deny that these concerns represent the actual views of a large number of AI experts.

If this was just hype or fabrication, they would speak out. Their inability to do so tells you everything you need to know.

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