David Sacks:OpenAI 和 Anthropic 不需要通过监管来限制前沿模型的发展速度
David Sacks: OpenAI and Anthropic Don't Need Regulations to Pace Frontier Models

原始链接: https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/2098973625252708460

作者对 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 的领导者提出了质疑,这些人曾呼吁放缓人工智能的发展速度以“跟上技术前沿的步伐”。作者认为,由于这两家公司在尖端智能领域拥有双头垄断地位,它们完全有能力独立放缓研发进度,无需政府批准的卡特尔联盟、监管豁免权,也不需要用强制指令来扼杀竞争对手。 文章指出,这些公司推动监管并非出于利他主义,更多是出于自身利益的考量:企业需要降低产品责任风险并确保可靠性,这本质上是良好的商业行为。此外,作者警告称,将建立特定的监管框架作为放缓研发的先决条件,近乎敲诈。最后,作者敦促这些领导者为自身的发展速度负责。如果他们真的担心超级智能带来的危险,就应采取单边行动,而不是利用政治体制寻求监管俘获。这样做才能建立公众好感;若不这样做,他们对监管的呼吁将暴露出其背后的虚伪策略。

最近的一场 Hacker News 讨论对 David Sacks 的观点提出了批评。Sacks 认为,OpenAI 和 Anthropic 不需要政府监管来把控前沿人工智能的发展速度。 评论者大多不认可 Sacks 的立场,并指出了其政治言论中的前后矛盾。批评者认为,当符合自身政治利益时,Sacks 曾主张对 Anthropic 等公司采取包括出口管制和反垄断在内的政府干预措施。 论坛中的其他人则对该行业持怀疑态度。一些人指出,那些声称为了安全而“放慢速度”的公司,实际上是在掩盖自身在技术和财务上的停滞。此外,用户们还注意到了其中的地缘政治讽刺意味:Sacks 一方面主张在国内实施限制,另一方面又承认,无论美国政策如何,中国等国际竞争对手都将继续推进其人工智能发展。总的来说,社区认为 Sacks 的立场是在作秀,并将当前的监管辩论视为一场高风险的“权力的游戏”,而非针对安全问题的真正探讨。
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原文

Dario has written that we need to “pace the frontier,” and Sam has agreed. People may be surprised by my response: go ahead. You guys are the frontier. By any reasonable metric — market share, revenue growth, model capability — the two of you have a duopoly on frontier intelligence. You’ve also claimed the lead is widening because of recursive self-improvement. I don’t see what you see in the lab. If the unreleased models are scary enough that you think you should slow down, I support your decision to be responsible. But stop pretending you need anyone else’s permission. Stop pretending antitrust law has to be suspended so you can form a cartel. Stop pretending you need a regulatory approval process that supersedes product liability. Stop pretending METR is independent when it is intertwined with Anthropic’s investors and staff. Stop pretending you need those same evaluators to police competitors who aren’t even at the frontier. Most of all, stop pretending the motivation to slow down is purely altruistic. You face massive product-liability exposure if your products enable a truly damaging cyberattack. The market already punishes models that behave in unpredictable or unauthorized ways. After the Hugging Face episode, it is simply good business for OpenAI and Anthropic to trade some raw power for reliability and predictability. Call it alignment if you want. It is also just giving customers what they want. Pacing the frontier would also create breathing room for a more intelligent conversation about regulation than Bernie Sanders’ “shut it all down.” China is very unlikely to join a global agreement, as you know, and that has to be taken into account as well. So go ahead and pace the frontier. You are the ones setting it. The easiest way not to build superintelligence is for you to agree not to build it. Demanding your preferred regulatory framework as the price of that will look like blackmail of the public and the political system. So just do it. If you do, you’ll buy goodwill for the next conversation. If you don’t, we’ll know this was just another bid for regulatory capture — or an election-season psyop.

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