AI 递归式自我提升或许并不会来得那么快(2026 年 8 月)
AI recursive self-improvement might not come so quickly after all (August 2026)

原始链接: https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/08/18/1142188/ai-recursive-self-improvement/

目前,人工智能体在应对科学研究中复杂且开放的特性时仍面临挑战。尽管它们能够提出宏大的假设,但缺乏进行高质量工作所需的创造力、判断力和坚持不懈的精神。研究人员发现,这些人工智能体无法探索多样化的想法,难以在方法失败时及时调整方向,也无法有效管理资源或整合反馈。虽然它们避免了“奖励作弊”并保持了内部准确性,但其产出远未达到顶级人工智能会议的标准。 据研究员卡普尔(Kapoor)称,这种局限性源于强化学习等训练范式。这些范式在结构化任务中表现出色,但在模糊且开放的环境中却表现不佳。尽管一些研究表明人工智能正在加速模型开发,但这些发现降低了对实现完全自主、递归自我改进这一目标的迫切预期。该研究的局限性——如样本量较小和潜在的审稿人偏见——凸显了评估人工智能研究能力的难度。归根结底,虽然人工智能在研究工程领域展现出前景,但要复刻基础科学发现所必需的细致推理,仍需要大量的人工指导。

这篇 Hacker News 讨论聚焦于《麻省理工科技评论》近期发表的一篇文章,该文对递归式人工智能自我改进的紧迫性提出了质疑。 评论者们指出了当前领域内的一些细微差异: * **发展步伐**:一些人认为人工智能模型(如 Opus 4.8)的快速演进使单项研究很快过时,但另一些人认为其核心发现依然具有参考价值。 * **定义自我改进**:用户对“人工智能辅助研究”与“真正的递归式自我改进”进行了区分。前者是指人工智能协助研究,后者是指模型自主优化其架构或权重。人们普遍怀疑当前的大语言模型范式是否具备后者能力。 * **实际局限性**:参与者指出,自主系统目前缺乏构建实现真正自我提升所需的复杂、大规模软件系统的能力。 * **怀疑论与现实**:尽管有些人将此研究视为对“末日论”叙事的一剂“冷静剂”,但另一些人则将其斥为“自我安慰”,认为顶尖的人工智能实验室仍预期递归式改进将在不久的将来实现。 总体而言,共识在于:尽管人工智能可以在研究中提供辅助,但机器独立提升自身智能这一“圣杯”尚未得到证实,且对于当前架构而言,可能在结构上仍遥不可及。
相关文章

原文

“On the other hand, the agents were unambiguously bad at carrying out the research itself,” says Kapoor. They ran bizarre experiments (in some cases testing their hypotheses on tiny synthetic datasets), struggled to write intelligibly about their work, and made no novel contribution to their fields. “The papers were nowhere close to the mark when it came to being at the quality of a top AI conference,” he says. 

That’s because the agents struggled to muster the creativity and judgment necessary for conducting research. They didn’t do enough to explore different ideas, and they committed to unpromising approaches too quickly. Though the agents developed novel and ambitious hypotheses resembling those that the original authors themselves started with, they rejected them on the basis of very limited data. And they couldn’t backtrack from failing approaches. They could make small pivots but could not fundamentally rethink their approach or try new ones from scratch. 

The agents also failed to incorporate feedback from subagents or external AI reviewing tools. Instead of revising their methodology, the agents narrowed their claims and added caveats. They also couldn’t effectively use resources, such as tokens, compute, and time. And they couldn’t follow instructions about things like how much time to spend on different phases of the research or how long their paper could be.

For all their failures, the agents didn’t engage in the misbehavior that researchers call “reward hacking,” hiding or misrepresenting experiments or data. Although subagents, or helper AIs that the main agent spawns to handle pieces of the work, occasionally hallucinated or misrepresented the results, these were caught by the orchestrator agent, the lead AI supervising the project. 

The reason AI models are good at research engineering but not at open-ended research may come down to how they’re trained, says Kapoor. Models get good at whatever they can be drilled on in a training regime called reinforcement learning, which is easier to apply to tasks whose success can be checked automatically. “But it’s harder to create environments to train these models when the task itself is open-ended,” he says.

Kapoor says the team is now conducting the experiment with Mythos, Anthropic’s most advanced model, which launched in April. It was subsequently required by the Trump administration to meet various safety restrictions and is now available only to approved organizations. Anthropic did not respond to a request for comment.

There are some limitations to the study. It covered just two research papers, and the original authors knew the papers they were grading were generated by AI agents, which could have colored their evaluations. And the researchers had substantial discretion in designing and executing the study, meaning that their preexisting beliefs and biases could have slipped into the results. Evaluations of open-ended research trade some objectivity for a much richer test than any benchmarks can offer.

Still, the results may temper the claims that recursive self-improvement is on the horizon. In June, Anthropic published a blog post titled “When AI Builds Itself,” charting its progress toward models that speed up their own development. In July, OpenAI advertised the fact that its new model GPT-5.6 Sol had helped post-train a smaller model, saving researchers weeks of work.

联系我们 contact @ memedata.com