Bitcoin is sharply higher, ignoring the meltdown in gold and other dollar-sensitive assets, on a surge in prediction market optimism that Washington may finally pass a crypto market structure bill, with odds rising to multi-week highs on Monday and Polymarket.
Polymarket bettors put the chance that the Clarity Act will be signed into law this year at nearly 30% Monday morning, up from just 12% earlier in September. That’s the highest level since early August, according to the event contract’s dashboard.
As a reminder the Senate is scheduled to hold a crucial procedural cloture vote on the crypto-focused Clarity Act on Tuesday, September 15, 2026, at approximately 2:15 p.m. ET. The bill requires 60 votes to advance.
Overnight, Senate Republicans released the "final" draft of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which they said incorporates "substantive changes" requested by Democrats, the Block reported. President Trump was also reported to have agreed to ethics restrictions in the bill that would limit crypto-related dealings by officials and their spouses.
Stablecoin rewards, previously a key sticking point in negotiations, also appear to have been addressed.
Under the latest draft, the Treasury secretary would have authority to impose a circuit-breaker on stablecoin rewards for up to 18 months after enactment, if stablecoins were deemed to be driving substantial deposit outflows from community banks.
Following the draft's release, market-implied odds of the bill passing this year rose from 22% to 30% on Polymarket.
Additionally, traders put the odds of passage before July 1 at 53%, versus 30% Thursday, after the contract briefly surged to 69%. The chance of legislation becoming law before April most recently stood at at 45%, roughly double Thursday's 23%.
Bessent helped with a post on X:
"I’ve said many times that the CLARITY Act is essential to ensuring America wins the global race for new technology.
That’s the reason Congress passed the GENIUS Act: to ensure that stablecoin infrastructure, a revolutionary financial technology, will be built in America..."
While markets clearly show traders see a clearer path for crypto legislation ahead of Tuesday's key procedural vote in the Senate, there's still plenty of road between a favorable vote and a presidential signature.
According to CoinDesk, Tuesday's Senate cloture vote requires 60 senators, forcing the measure to draw bipartisan support. Clearing that threshold would be an important political milestone, but it would not amount to final Senate passage.
Lawmakers could still face a lengthy amendment process of the bill. Any changes would also have to be reconciled with the House before legislation could head to the president, while the congressional calendar adds another source of uncertainty.
The next move belongs to the Democrats, because this wasn't a negotiated package, one analyst said.
Jaret Sieberg, a financial policy analyst for TD Cowen, said the Democratic lawmakers may not see enough here to justify getting on board, so he maintained a 25% chance of Clarity Act passage on Monday.
"We are not convinced the updated ethics language Senate Republicans released last night is substantive enough for moderate Democrats," he wrote in a note to clients.
The problems for Democrats: President Trump would still be able to maintain his crypto investments, even if they're structured in a blind trust, so it doesn't sever him from the industry he has such an influence on. And the powers for state attorneys general to sue remain very narrow, with no direct actions possible against the president. Also, Trump would tout a yes vote as a major personal victory, Sieberg said, potentially carrying a political cost for the November elections.
On the positive side, Sieberg noted, the changes could give Democrats a little more political cover if they wanted to support the bill, and bankers may feel more comfortable with it because of the extra protections it gives their deposit accounts from customers running to stablecoins.
He said that because the administration hasn't yet offered Democrat nominations to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Securities and Exchange Commission, those could be offered up to sweeten the deal in a final negotiation.
And while the odds of Clarity act passage have failed to rise above 50%, even the modest move observed was enough to push bitcoin up nearly $2000 to just shy of $80K, the highest since Friday's post-CPI "band aid" response.
