Submitted by Thomas Kolbe
That Was a Short-Lived Boom.
After just a few weeks, the special economic effect of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has already evaporated, according to Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs. In its monthly report, the ministry states that energy-intensive sectors and companies in German industry benefited from a massive disruption of supply chains in Asia following the closure — a one-time opportunity to temporarily offset the competitive disadvantages at home by shutting out the competition and moving into the business vacuum that had emerged.
Companies in the chemical and metals industries in particular benefited from this special situation, which generated robust growth in the second quarter, the ministry said.
Ultimately, the effect faded faster than expected. After just a few weeks, the German economic miracle was over — and the gray reality has returned. According to the ministry, the German economy continues to lack growth impulses. The stagnation is therefore continuing.
Bad news for the German government, and even worse news for Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who is desperately hoping for economic figures he can use as campaign ammunition rather than going into the next election with completely empty hands when voters hand him another political rebuke in just a few days. Pressure on the unpopular chancellor is also growing within his own party. Merz should actually be delivering something substantial by now — after more than a year of his debt orgy. He should be spreading hope of an impending upswing. Instead, his artificial economy, bloated with ever more debt, keeps collapsing like a soufflé.
The figures from the economy show that this soufflé will not rise again anytime soon. Industrial production is currently 3.3 percent below its level a year ago. Energy-intensive industries in particular, which are falling back into their old apathy after the Iranian special boom, reported a 1.7 percent decline in July. No stimulus can be expected from German consumers — real retail sales fell by 3.4 percent from the previous month in July. Inflation is eating into household purchasing power, and the weak labor market is showing its teeth.
Given the dramatic state of German industry, no one should expect an upswing in the German labor market. A total of 144,000 industrial jobs have been lost in the past twelve months alone. In August, the number of unemployed stood at 3.06 million — although statistical manipulation involving unregistered unemployed people in job-creation programs, short-time work or early retirement conceals the true state of the labor market. The naked truth about the German economy is also hidden in basic income support and other social programs — underemployment is a far greater problem than the statistics allow us to see.
Compared with the previous year, Germany’s job centers count 226,000 fewer people employed in the German economy. The German state’s reforestation program in the public sector will do little more than provide cosmetic relief. The decline is real, and it is reflected in corporate insolvencies, which this year are at their highest level since 2013.
More than 18,500 corporate failures over the past twelve months are now on the books. They are compelling evidence of the structural problems at Germany’s economic location, which could only be eliminated through a political U-turn of 180 degrees. Yet even following a political change, returning to a path of growth would probably be difficult. The collateral damage left behind by political ideologues has simply become too great.
Germany is trapped: cut off from Russian gas, caught in the grip of the emerging diesel-price crisis caused by the Hormuz closure, and dependent on the goodwill of the Americans, who have become its main supplier of fossil fuels — the German economy is stumbling toward a price shock with almost no alternatives.
Once this energy shock works its way through the economic chain and into consumer prices, many German households will be in trouble. They have already been suffering from rising prices for years. Among supporters of degrowth ideology, this fatal combination of circumstances may be cause for celebration. Everyone, however, should be aware that Germany’s deeply divided society needs a boost in prosperity more urgently than ever. And growth is only conceivable in an environment of secure and affordable energy.
Economics is the study of relationships and scarcity. Germany is competing with giants such as China and the United States. Energy prices there are now so significantly below German levels that the bleeding of domestic industry has become inevitable, regardless of how much subsidy money is pumped into the economic body through subsidized industrial electricity prices or direct aid.
Political action in these times appears bizarre. Berlin and Brussels are responding to their own interventionism, the regulatory shackles left behind by low interest rates, climate regulation and energy policy, with further regulation and strangulation of businesses. Are we really surprised by the zombification of large parts of the economy, which now has to compensate for the significant rise in borrowing costs? This policy is dangerous to society. It is destabilizing and could only be prevented by a radical return to the market economy, to a principle of limited government while mobilizing all the forces of society. Until that realization matures, it will be a long and very dangerous road for all supporters of a free society and the market economy.
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About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a graduate economist, has worked for or over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.