Unverified reports and footage circulating on X early Saturday morning appear to show smoke rising from Saudi Aramco's Riyadh refinery. The cause and any impact on operations remain unclear. Separately, Axios reports that Saudi Arabia is preparing a major offensive against Iran-backed Houthis in the coming days. President Trump's comments last week that a bombing campaign against Tehran could resume after the midterm elections add to signs that the Gulf conflict remains far from any near-term resolution.
Turkish news outlet Türkiye Today cites NASA's FIRMS satellite monitoring system, which shows higher-intensity VIIRS thermal hits across Aramco's Riyadh refinery, one of Saudi Arabia's most important refining assets, with a capacity of about 130,000 barrels a day.
Open-source intelligence (OSINT) accounts on X are sharing footage of what may be Iran-backed Houthi attacks on the refinery. No official word yet on why thick black plumes of smoke are rising from multiple locations at the refinery.
A separate report by Axios overnight states that the Saudis are preparing for a major operation against the Houthis in the coming days, targeting coastal areas that give the rebels leverage over the critical maritime chokepoint of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. The report cites two US officials.
More color from Axios:
Behind the scenes: A U.S. official said the Saudis have been planning the operation for weeks and that plans were approved by Saudi leadership several days ago.
- The operation will include ground forces loyal to the internationally recognized government in Yemen with Saudi air cover.
- On Thursday, Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid Bin Salman called Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to brief him on the planned operation and ask again for U.S. airstrikes against Houthi targets, the U.S. official said.
- A U.S. official said that the U.S. "is not going to take kinetic action for now."
President Trump reiterated to TIME last week that he may escalate attacks on Iran after the November midterms if an acceptable deal can't be reached.
Separately, University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape has warned that Oct. 1 could mark a new phase in the conflict. He writes that "Iran's 45-day deadline to the United States expired today."
"On August 16, Iran's Supreme National Security Council decided that if Washington did not lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports within 45 days, Tehran would retain the option of launching renewed attacks against U.S. forces," Pape underscores. "That clock has now run out."