UBS energy analyst Nayoung Kim warned about a growing vulnerability in Europe's natural gas market on Thursday: with less than a month before seasonal withdrawals begin, storage levels remain well below historical norms for this time of year, leaving the continent with a smaller buffer against winter demand and supply disruptions.
Kim wrote that despite optimism this week over improved Hormuz flows (read the Goldman report), which has kept energy prices in check, top LNG exporter Qatar shipped just four cargoes in September, compared with 25 a month before June 2025 and an average of around 30. Force majeure has also been extended into November or early December for some buyers.
The final countdown to Europe's NatGas drawdown period is underway, with EU gas storage standing at just 71.50% full as of the end of the week, well below the 15-year average of around 88% for this time of year.
Weekly injections slowed to 1.3 billion cubic meters from 1.6 billion, with Norwegian maintenance and higher industrial demand offsetting an increase in LNG arrivals.
"We expect storage to reach 74% by winter, below last year's 84% and the five-year average of 90%, before falling to around 25% by the end of winter," Kim wrote in the note.
Meanwhile, Asian buyers are stepping up purchases. Weekly LNG inflows into Asia rose 12%, led by Northeast Asia, while combined arrivals into Japan and South Korea jumped 33% from the previous week.
Europe will have to pay up to keep cargoes coming before the Northern Hemisphere winter arrives. Asia's JKM benchmark is trading at a premium of more than $1.50 per million British thermal units to Europe's TTF, potentially forcing European buyers to raise bids for spot supplies, according to the analyst.
For Europe, the reality is clear: its benchmark Dutch TTF natural gas price will have to stay elevated through the winter, and buffers will remain unusually thin.
All it will take is one cold shot, renewed disruption to Gulf shipments, or sustained Asian buying for the Europeans to panic.
Beyond low NatGas supplies, Europe is also facing a fuel crisis, as the Trump administration has asked France and Germany to begin releasing emergency diesel supplies.