到2035年,美国可能有多达1100万名劳动者需要转行。
11 Million US Workers May Need To Switch Careers By 2035

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/11-million-us-workers-may-need-switch-careers

文章认为,公共关系公司、亿万富翁和企业媒体放大了人工智能的末日叙事,试图影响公众舆论和监管,从而保护头部人工智能公司的竞争优势。数十万人失业的预测,以及比尔·盖茨据称警告的“十亿人死亡”等灾难性说法,都被夸大。 麦肯锡公司的一份报告预计,到2035年,美国约有1100万名劳动者、约占劳动力的7%,可能需要转换职业。这指的是职业转型,并不一定意味着大规模失业,不过其中七分之六的劳动者可能会遭遇收入下降。借鉴机械化农业和工厂自动化等以往技术变革的经验,文章指出,经济通常会通过再培训、创造新就业机会和提高生产率来适应变化。尽管这种转型可能给劳动者带来痛苦,尤其是低技能岗位的劳动者,但与劳动力市场受冲击的现有证据相比,文章认为所谓“人工智能就业末日”被夸大了。

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原文

This month has made it very clear how AI doom narratives are promoted in an information operation through public relations firms, billionaires, and endless streams of climate-like doom corporate media headlines. These efforts aim to shape public opinion about AI and push for tighter regulation, giving those at the top of frontier labs moats. 

The headlines have ranged from claims that AI will take tens of millions of jobs to, more recently, Bill Gates warning that AI could "cause a billion deaths" as he calls for regulation. But like Gates' climate predictions, much of the doomerism seems to be hyped up. 

As for the AI jobs-apocalypse narrative, it may be overblown. A new report by McKinsey & Co. suggests AI could force roughly 11 million US workers to change occupations by 2035 - or about 7% of the current workforce.

McKinsey describes the labor market disruption as more of a transitional period for working-class folks in low-skilled jobs rather than an outright jobs apocalypse. However, six out of seven affected workers could face income loss.

"Job opportunities can be abundant and yet leave millions of workers without work if those positions require different skills, credentials, locations or pay structures than current jobs," the report's authors stated.

The US economy has navigated technological changes before, and there is nothing new under the sun: from tractors displacing farm workers in the fields to automated factories replacing workers on an assembly line, computerized offices, and online retail. Those transitions lifted productivity but disrupted the labor market, requiring workers to retrain and find new jobs.

Over time, living standards rise, and the economy adapts. But apocalyptic narratives of tens of millions of job losses and warnings like Gates' claim that AI could "cause a billion deaths" represent perhaps what can only be described as peak doomerism.

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