Brent crude topped $110 a barrel to end the week for the first time since May as drone and missile attacks on energy infrastructure, from the Gulf to the war in Ukraine, cast a very dark cloud over oil and products market ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter.
The global benchmark rose 3.7% Friday, marking the second consecutive week of gains as traders ramped up bullish bets on crude ahead of the weekend.
Bloomberg reports that two tankers were struck near Jubail, a port city in Saudi Arabia.
- The first tanker, 78 nautical miles northeast of Jubail, was hit by a rocket-propelled grenade fired from a small boat, causing damage but no casualties.
- The second tanker, 68 nautical miles northeast of Jubail, was struck by an unidentified projectile. Its crew was reported safe and evacuated.
The broadening conflict in the Middle East, with Iran-backed Houthis pelting Saudi Arabia with missiles and drones, Tehran causing ongoing trouble in the Strait of Hormuz, and Ukraine continuing to attack Russian energy infrastructure, has renewed fear in the oil market.
The good news this week is that more than 100 million barrels passed through the waterway, bringing volumes close to pre-war levels, but a nasty global refining crisis may accelerate into the new year.
Read UBS:
"After a brief reprieve, the oil market is having to price risk back in, particularly heading into the weekend," said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group.
Diesel futures settled at $4.90 a gallon in New York, while gasoline also rose. Both fuels are trading at their highest levels for this time of year. Restrictions on Russian diesel are pushing refineries elsewhere to process more crude.
The International Energy Agency warned in recent days that the diesel squeeze will persist through at least the first half of next year, similar to Goldman's recent take (read here).
Vitol CEO Russell Hardy warned, "There aren't any more inventories to drain in the West," as the tail risk of $200 crude lingers if another hard shutdown of the Hormuz chokepoint materializes.