Remnants of the original Yellow Vests (Gilets Jaunes) movement are joining the ongoing far-left riots/protests, potentially broadening social instability and increasing pressure on President Emmanuel Macron as he approaches the end of his term in crisis.
France's political, social and fiscal pressures are increasingly reinforcing one another, with high borrowing costs making its expansive welfare state harder to finance.
France's five-year sovereign credit default swap spread has jumped to about 79 basis points, more than double its recent level near 30 basis points and roughly its highest since 2013. The surge shows investors demand a higher premium to insure French government debt against default as concern over sovereign credit risk mounts. However, the spread remains well below the 222 bps peak seen during the eurozone debt crisis in 2011.
These pressures have provided tailwinds for Marine Le Pen's right-wing National Rally (RN), which is positioning itself as an alternative ahead of next year's presidential election. Le Pen's recently unveiled shadow budget proposes spending cuts to restore fiscal common sense and reduce the risk of a sovereign debt crisis.
Le Pen's Polymarket odds of winning next year's election currently stand at ...
Bloomberg quoted the Interior Ministry early Saturday as expecting hundreds of actions, including blockades of motorway toll booths and service stations, alongside 90 marches.
"We're expecting a pretty big mobilization" by protesters, Interior Minister Laurent Nunez told local media late Friday.
The left-wing CGT (Confédération Générale du Travail), one of France's major trade unions, is expected to participate, as indications suggest that weeks of far-left demonstrations are broadening.
The unrest puts significant pressure on Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu as he seeks parliamentary support to curb spending and reduce the budget deficit to 5% of economic output in 2027, a target France missed this year. Notably, France last balanced its budget in 1973.
The Yellow Vests first emerged in 2018 against Macron's proposed fuel-tax increase, drawing support from working-class folks concerned about rising living costs in the welfare state.
An uncomfortable reality is setting in for French elites: throwing more money at handouts and degrading services, on top of mass migration, has been a toxic progressive experiment that appears to be unraveling at the seams.
As Macron and his globalist buddies lose control of France, unrest has spread to other corners of the bloc, including Spain, Italy, Albania, and Belgium.