Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

A now-deleted Azeri article over the weekend, whose initial publication was perceived by many Turks as having been state-approved, prompted a complaint from the Turkish Embassy in Baku and worsened mutual suspicions among these fraternal people of what the other's government is up to.

The Turkish Embassy in Baku released a statement over the weekend denying a local media report that former spy chief-turned-Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's picture with members of the "Youth Assistance Foundation" during his latest trip to Baku to attend a multilateral event was proof of a secret meeting. The report has since been deleted, but the gist was that the aforesaid group and others are operating under Turkiye's influence to weaponize the recent pro-hijab protests for regime change purposes.

For background, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's condemnation of unnamed states' hijab bans in his UNGA speech last month preceded the entry into force of Azerbaijan's new school uniform policy that was interpreted by some administrators in that way, thus prompting a wave of protests. His Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev then accused unnamed states of meddling in Azeri affairs during a speech to members of the ruling party. Some Azeris suspect that Turkish activists organized the protests.

Ahead of the previously mentioned event in Baku, Aliyev dispatched his national airline to pick up his Israeli counterpart on a plane named after the Azeri-Turkish alliance to fly him to to Baku across Turkish airspace despite Ankara banning all Israeli flights, which some Turks considered to be a snub. Since then, critical articles about Turkiye have appeared in Azeri media, which is considered by some to be state-influenced. This further fueled their ongoing social media disputes. Here are three background briefings:

* 5 October: "The Azeri-Turkish Brotherhood Is Going Through Some Trouble"

* 14 October: "The Azeri-Turkish Brotherhood Is Being Tested By Azerbaijan's Pro-Hijab Protests"

* 17 October: "Aliyev Used Israeli President Herzog To Take Three Jabs At Erdogan"

Two driving forces are behind this unprecedented dispute between these fraternal nations that consider themselves to be "one nation, two states". These are Turkiye's discomfort with Azerbaijan's de facto alliance with Israel, with which Turkiye has been in a rivalry since October 7th, and Azerbaijan's discomfort what some perceive to be Turkiye's Neo-Ottoman plans. Some Turks now suspect that Israel is behind Azerbaijan's alleged hijab ban while some Azeris suspect that Turkiye is behind the protests.

Moreover, some Azeris worry that Turkiye's suspected plans to turn August 2025's "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity" into a Turkish-led NATO logistics corridor along Russia's southern periphery could spark a Ukrainian-like war, while some Turks believe that Israel planted these fears. The hijab issue was therefore only the spark for getting Azeris and Turks to air out their grievances against one another on social media, not the root cause, but it now seems to have taken on a life of its own.

This background contextualizes the earlier cited article that was deleted after the Turkish Embassy's complaint. While its veracity is unclear, what's much more certain is that its publication was probably greenlit to signal to Turkiye to rein in its social media activists who've directly involved themselves in Azerbaijan's hijab debate, which Baku tacitly considers to be meddling given the protests that have since followed. If they don't soon stop, then Azeris might consider this to be a betrayal of their brotherhood.