Authored by Blaise Malley via Responsible Statecraft,
As election day nears, two new polls show the Iran war has emerged as one of the most important issues shaping voters' midterm decisions.
National polls from Fox News and The Associated Press-NORC place the war behind only economy-related issues, government corruption, and health care among voters' top four concerns.
Significantly, the Iran war has surpassed immigration and crime, two issues on which President Donald Trump performed particularly well in 2024, among voters' top concerns. In the 2024 campaign, pre- and post-election polling showed those issues as ranking higher as a priority for voters than foreign policy.
The Fox News survey showed 75% of respondents were either "extremely" (42%) or "very" (33%) concerned about the war in Iran. According to the AP-NORC poll, 62% of registered voters named the war as one of the most important issues, and a further 31% said it was "an important issue, but not one of the most important."
The Fox poll further found that six in 10 voters oppose U.S. military action against Iran, and those voters favor Democratic congressional candidates by 56 points.
Some of the specific economic concerns voters mentioned, including gas prices and the cost of living, have been driven by an energy crisis fueled by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, blurring the line between economic and foreign-policy concerns.
Both polls were conducted in roughly the same window. AP-NORC surveyed 1,119 adults, including 925 registered voters, between Oct. 8-12 , with a 3.9-point margin of error, while Fox surveyed 1,202 registered voters Oct. 9-12, with a 2.5-point margin of error.
Many election analysts have compared this midterm election to that of 2006, when the combination of an unpopular war in the Middle East and economic frustration at home helped deliver that year's Democratic wave, in which the party gained six Senate seats and 31 seats in the House.
As Jim Antle of the Washington Examiner wrote in RS this week, "today, the public has even less patience for the current war than in 2006."
In addition to the war's importance to respondents, the polling also indicates that voters are souring on Trump, and his foreign policy.
The AP-NORC poll shows a mere 33% approval rating for the president's foreign policy, the lowest that percentage has been across eight polls by the same firm during Trump's second term. The 35% approval rating for Trump's foreign policy in the Fox News poll is similarly the lowest recorded by Fox since his return to office.
Republican candidates across the country have certainly noticed. In tight races in Michigan, Maine, Iowa, and elsewhere, Republican nominees have called for a swift end to the war, though some maintain that this can still be accomplished militarily.
In leaked private audio reported by Axios earlier this month, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican candidate for Senate, admitted that his campaign's primary problems were driven largely by the war in Iran and its effect on gas prices.
On Tuesday, Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Wis.), who is running for governor of his state, said it was time to "wrap up" the war.
"The president is doing what he believes is best for the United States of America," Tiffany said. "What I'm focused on is being the best governor possible in Wisconsin."
