The Islamic Republic's support for Yemen's Houthis has exposed the limits of Saudi military power and diplomacy, making a broader coalition against Iran necessary, said Hussain Abdul-Hussain, a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

“I'm not saying the Marines should land anywhere in Tehran,” Abdul-Hussain said. “I'm just saying push the regime enough so that the other Iranians can take over.”

The proposed strategy, he said, would draw on the US-led coalition that expelled Iraqi forces from Kuwait in 1991, with Saudi Arabia providing regional political support for a campaign aimed at weakening the Islamic Republic and enabling Iranians to determine their country's political future.

Such a coalition could fundamentally alter the regional balance of power and influence the calculations of China and Russia, Abdul-Hussain added.

Iran's Houthi leverage

The Houthis have emerged as one of the Islamic Republic's most effective regional allies, maintaining their military capabilities despite years of Saudi-led operations and pressure on other Iran-backed armed groups.

Their geographical distance from Israel has also made them more difficult to weaken than Hezbollah in Lebanon or Iran-aligned militias in Iraq, according to Abdul-Hussain.

The challenge, he said, has become more pronounced since the withdrawal of Emirati forces from Yemen following divisions within the Saudi-led coalition.

Pro-UAE militias had provided some of the coalition's most effective ground forces, leaving Saudi Arabia increasingly dependent on air power and Yemeni government forces weakened by corruption, inflated troop numbers and divisions, Abdul-Hussain said.

Airstrikes alone cannot defeat an armed group operating from mountainous terrain and fortified positions, he argued, drawing comparisons with Israel's experience fighting Hezbollah in 2006 and 2023.

The absence of reliable ground partners has therefore allowed the Houthis to remain a persistent military challenge despite Saudi Arabia's superior conventional capabilities.

The group's operations also serve Iran's wider regional strategy by placing Saudi energy infrastructure and shipping routes within reach of an Iranian ally.

Recent Houthi advances and strikes on Saudi territory reflect a broader Iranian message that disruptions to its own oil exports could be accompanied by pressure on other regional producers, particularly as Saudi Arabia shifts exports toward the Bab el-Mandeb shipping route, Abdul-Hussain added.

Saudi diplomatic failures

Saudi Arabia's continued diplomatic engagement with the Islamic Republic has failed to reduce the security challenge posed by Iran's regional allies, Abdul-Hussain said.

Maintaining an ambassador in Tehran and inviting Revolutionary Guards officials to Saudi National Day celebrations, even as Saudi energy infrastructure faces missile strikes, sends a message of weakness rather than diplomatic pragmatism, he argued.

The UAE, despite its smaller size and closer geographical proximity to Iran, had previously demonstrated greater willingness to sever diplomatic relations with the Islamic Republic, according to Abdul-Hussain.

Saudi Arabia's diplomatic outreach to Turkey and Pakistan has also produced limited practical support against the Houthis and the Revolutionary Guards, he said.

Abdul-Hussain attributed part of the problem to a Saudi leadership structure in which advisers are reluctant to challenge prevailing assumptions, leaving decision-makers without a credible alternative to their existing strategy.

“They have to swallow their pride with the Emiratis and the Israelis,” Abdul-Hussain said. “This is the key.”

Restoring cooperation with Abu Dhabi and establishing open relations with Israel would provide the foundation for a more effective regional alignment against Iran, he added.

Such cooperation would need to be public rather than confined to private security arrangements, particularly because Israeli participation could expose Israeli shipping to additional Houthi operations.

Saudi Arabia's decision to condition normalization with Israel on Palestinian statehood has further complicated the formation of an anti-Iran coalition, Abdul-Hussain said.

The shift, he noted, has moved Riyadh away from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's earlier emphasis on prioritizing Saudi national interests, without producing corresponding security benefits for the kingdom.

Coalition against Iran

A coalition modeled on the international military campaign that expelled Saddam Hussein's forces from Kuwait in 1991 could provide a framework for confronting the Islamic Republic without a US ground invasion of Iran, Abdul-Hussain said.

Saudi Arabia played a central role in assembling regional support for that campaign, lending political legitimacy to a military operation led by the United States.

A similar alignment involving Washington, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Israel could apply sustained pressure on Iran's ruling establishment while leaving the ultimate outcome to Iranians themselves, according to the analyst.

“Throw all the chips behind President Trump and the war on Iran, and push for regime change,” Abdul-Hussain said.

The proposed approach would mark a departure from Saudi Arabia's efforts to balance diplomatic relations with Iran against military operations targeting its regional allies.

Rather than continuing to absorb the costs of confronting the Houthis without weakening their principal backer, Saudi Arabia should help organize a broader campaign directed at the Islamic Republic itself, Abdul-Hussain argued.

The central objective, in his view, would not be a foreign occupation of Iran but sufficient external pressure to create an opportunity for Iranians to replace the country's ruling establishment.