Could this be the actual breakthrough coming after many months of prior claimed negotiation 'breakthroughs' and false starts?
Just when the prospect of even getting back to the negotiating table seemed as remote as ever, Qatari newspaper Al-Araby Al-Jadeed is reporting that planned direct talks are back on.
Regional sources are indeed calling this a "breakthrough" in hitherto indirect negotiations between Washington and Tehran, with an American delegation soon expected to join Iranian officials for direct talks in Doha.
The midterm election in the US is just a handful of days away, and President Trump has strongly signaled he might renew a major bombing campaign against the Islamic Republic.
Picking up on the Saturday Qatari report, Times of Israel writes, "Citing sources close to mediation efforts led by Qatar and Pakistan, the report says the sides have agreed on preliminary measures concerning Iran’s nuclear program, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and financial incentives for Tehran, with China and Russia set to serve as guarantors of an agreement."
"The reported progress follows what Axios describes as more than 12 hours of talks between Qatari mediators and Iranian officials in Tehran yesterday, aimed at averting renewed US strikes on Iran after the November 3 midterm elections," it adds.
Al Arabiya English says it has obtained ey points from the preliminary draft framework for restarting US-Iran negotiations and has published the following list:
- Iran could transfer its highly enriched uranium stockpile to an agreed third country or reduce its enrichment level
- The Strait of Hormuz could reopen to international maritime traffic within seven days of an initial understanding
- China could potentially serve as a guarantor of the implementation and sustainability of any agreement
Direct US-Iran negotiations could be held in Doha instead of Istanbul- Iranian measures on the nuclear file and maritime security would be matched by clearly defined US measures to ease sanctions, blockades and economic restrictions
- An independent verification mechanism would assess compliance before each subsequent phase of implementation
- Neither side would be required to make substantial concessions without receiving corresponding, independently verifiable commitments
- A dispute-resolution mechanism involving mediators and guarantor parties would address delays or violations to help prevent renewed military escalation
But none of this means that Iranian leadership is going to sit idly by and let the Trump administration dictate the terms, as it continues sticking by its seven conditions for ending the war.
By now it should be clear that Tehran does not trust Trump or Netanyahu when it comes to efforts to achieve peace.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has on Saturday put his military on heightened alert, ordering military commanders to ensure an immediate and desvastating response to any threat, and notably without geographical limitation.
"Any level or type of threat must be met with an immediate, impactful, and geographically unrestricted response," the Ayatollah - who has not been seen in public since the war began - has stated.
This was reportedly the result of a meeting with senior military commanders - itself a very rare thing if indeed happened, again given that he's not so much as been seen in public since the assassination of his father.
Al Jazeera describes the significance further, writing that "Iranians have been emphasising that if a new wave of war comes, Iran is going to go beyond the locations that it has hit in the previous rounds."
"Khamenei is also saying that if the war restarts, then it’s going to be up to Iran to determine when it’s going to end and on what terms," the regional commentary adds. "This is quite a huge thing because it’s saying that the terms of diplomacy will be up to Iran now."
So these planned next Qatari talks could be the last big diplomatic effort at restarting a peace and dialogue track, or else it could be bombs away and runaway escalation.