大幅修改后,美国 4 月份住房开工/许可情况不佳
US Housing Starts/Permits Ugly In April After Huge Revisions

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-housing-startspermits-ugly-april-after-huge-revisions

4 月份,尽管市场情绪消极且抵押贷款利率上升,但分析师预测新屋开工量和建筑许可都会上升。 然而,他们低估了这些趋势,新屋开工量增长了 5.7%,但低于预期增长,而许可证下降了 3%。 由于修订后的数据,这两个类别早些时候都出现了显着的月度下降,之后出现了这种对比。 单户住宅许可证下降了 0.8%,多户住宅许可证下降了 9.1%。 与此同时,租赁单位开工量猛增 31.4%。 尽管单户住宅竣工率达到 2022 年 11 月以来的最高年率(这可以解释新建筑的疲软),但建筑业的就业水平仍处于历史高位。 此外,最近利率上升至 7% 以上,严重打击了房屋建筑商的乐观情绪。 一些人猜测,美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔可能会通过提高借贷成本来控制房地产行业的下降,以控制通货膨胀和平均收入指数。

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原文

Despite a plunge in sentiment and soaring mortgage rates, analysts expected Starts and Permits to increase in April.

They were half right, but both missed bigly - as Starts rose 5.7% MoM (below the +7.6% exp), up from a downwardly revised 16.8% plunge in March; Permits dropped 3.0% MoM (well below the +0.9% exp), but better than the downwardly revised 5.0% drop in March.

Source: Bloomberg

The downward revision for March meant it saw the largest MoM drop since COVID lockdowns.

Single- and Multi-Family Permits both dropped in April (-0.8% and -9.1% respectively) while Rental Unit Starts surged 31.4% MoM...

Source: Bloomberg

The Multifamily start jump was off COVID lockdown lows...

Finally, just what will homebuilders do now that expectations for 2024 rate-cuts have collapsed?

Source: Bloomberg

The number of completed single-family homes climbed to a 1.09 million annualized rate, the most since November 2022. That may explain the softer advance in new groundbreaking activity... but construction employment is at record highs?

Source: Bloomberg

One thing is for sure, a surge in mortgage rates back above 7% chilled homebuilder sentiment dramatically...

Source: Bloomberg

Is Powell trying to engineer a slow motion crash in housing to lower OER and this CPI?

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