Brent futures remain below $100 a barrel in early New York trading as diplomatic signals continue to emerge. Markets are betting that the Democratic sweep has raised the odds of a near-term peace deal, which was enough to wipe out Brent's $20-a-barrel war risk premium this week. 

But the US and Iran could still return to all-out fighting as US planners want to wipe out Pickaxe Mountain and disable Kharg Island. 

All this hopium overlooks the fact that the global energy and refining crisis is far from over. Even if the two sides reach a deal, it will take time to replenish depleted stockpiles worldwide.

Another geopolitical wake-up call comes from the Financial Times, which reported this morning that at least four Iran-linked ships lingered over undersea telecommunications cables in the Gulf of Oman in October.

The report cited maritime intelligence firm Windward, which identified three tankers under US sanctions and a small Iranian fishing vessel. 

One tanker, the Celestial Sea, spent more than four hours circling near the 2Africa cable on Oct. 14. The next day, it switched off its automated tracking system while between two cable routes. The fishing vessel lingered over the Europe India Gateway and Transworld cables in the latter part of the month. 

Windward told the FT that the vessels sailed "normally until they reached a specific cable corridor, and only then slowed, looped, turned back, loitered or went dark." The firm said the pattern "fits the profile of mapping the cable routes, or placing charges or mines on them while dark."

Last month, Hossein Mohebbi, a spokesperson for Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said, "Seven major undersea internet cables run through the Strait of Hormuz, carrying all commercial and internet data. We just want [the US] to realize that new targets and new weapons shall be unveiled. And ultimately, we shall sweep the remnants of US power out of the region."