人工智能抛售与著名股市崩盘的比较
The AI sell-off compared to well-known stock market crashes

原始链接: https://www.kadoa.com/companies/insights/ai-selloff-perspective

截至2026年11月6日,标普500指数在11月5日下跌4.4%后,较其纪录高点低6%,尽管历史上只有少数6%的跌幅会超过15%。科技股跌幅更大:纳斯达克指数下跌11%,美国芯片股下跌36%,与新冠时期的回撤相当。标普500指数当前的跌幅与过去危机相比温和,而芯片股接近其新冠低点。复苏时间差异很大:在互联网泡沫破裂后,标普500指数用了约7年才重新创下纪录,而芯片股用了18年。这些数字仅基于价格,不包括股息。

Hacker News评论者争论最近由AI驱动的市场下跌是有意义的抛售,还是正常的选举相关波动。一些人认为反弹通常很快且崩溃难以预测;其他人担心持续的AI泡沫风险,尤其是数据中心和GPU估值。参与者讨论即使AI估值下跌,AI硬件需求是否仍会强劲,并与互联网泡沫崩溃进行比较。总体而言,该讨论反映出不确定性:一些人认为这是买入机会,而另一些人警告,被高估的AI相关市值和盈利能力担忧可能导致更大的调整。
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原文

6 Nov 2026

The S&P 500 is 6% below its record, a small fall next to past crashes: since 1928, only 16 of 56 drops that reached 6% went past 15%. Tech took more of the hit. The Nasdaq is 11% down and US chip stocks 36%, as deep as their Covid fall. How long a recovery takes varies just as much: after dot-com, the S&P 500 was back at its record in 7 years, chip stocks in 18.

The S&P 500 at the close on 6 Nov 2026

Below record
−6%
From its record close

Thursday 5 Nov
−4.4%
Worst day since 4 Apr 2025

Trading days since record
23
Since 6 Oct 2026

Slides that went past 15%
16 of 56
Slides since 1928 that reached 6%

How far the S&P 500 fell below a record close

Each line runs from a record high to the low that followed. Eight of the 16 falls past 15% since 1928 are shown.

Daily closes to 6 Nov 2026

100200300400500600 trading days

Mild for the S&P 500, a crash for chip stocks

How far each index is below its record now, against the lows of its own best-known past falls. US chip stocks (the PHLX Semiconductor index) are 36% down from their 22 Jun record, as deep as their Covid fall.

Daily closes to 6 Nov 2026

Record−10%−20%−30%−40%−50%−60%−70%−80%−90%S&P 500

Nasdaq

US chip stocks

After dot-com, the S&P 500 took 7 years to recover, chip stocks 18

Years from each index's record close to its first close back at or above it. Prices only: with dividends reinvested, most recoveries were shorter. These are worst cases, for someone who bought at the record.

S&P 500NasdaqUS chip stocks

Great DepressionBefore indexBefore index

1973 oil shockBefore index

1987 crashBefore index

Dot-com

2008 crisisInside dot-comInside dot-com

Covid

2022

April 2025

AI sell-off

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