普京希望停火,从而冻结乌克兰目前的防线
Putin Wants Ceasefire Which Freezes Current Lines In Ukraine

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putin-wants-ceasefire-involving-freeze-current-lines-ukraine

俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京提议在俄罗斯和乌克兰之间持续的冲突中停火,旨在冻结现有战线。 然而,乌克兰领导人,特别是总统泽连斯基,出于对俄罗斯意图的担忧,一直拒绝此类提议。 这些拒绝源于担心,考虑到目前的战场状况,接受停火可能会导致重大领土让步。 据报道,俄罗斯目前控制着乌克兰约五分之一的领土,特别是顿涅茨克、卢甘斯克、扎波罗热和赫尔松的部分地区。 克里姆林宫发言人德米特里·佩斯科夫表示,俄罗斯无意将这些领土归还给乌克兰,认为它们是俄罗斯本身不可分割的一部分。 尽管双方都不愿意,但有迹象表明,根据迄今为止取得的最新进展,普京可能会寻求宣布胜利并放弃军事接触。 消息人士称,普京的目标是利用这些成就,让乌克兰的战争不再发生在后视镜中。 尽管这种转变的影响尚不清楚,但潜在的后果包括局势大幅升级或降级,具体取决于双方的反应。

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原文

President Vladimir Putin is offering a ceasefire with Ukraine and its Western backers to end what has long been a full-fledged proxy war. But it's unlikely to be agreed to by Kiev as he reportedly wants to freeze current positions.

"Putin can fight for as long as it takes, but Putin is also ready for a ceasefire - to freeze the war," a senior Russian source said to be close to the Russian leader told Reuters. If it happened, Putin would most certainly present this as 'victory' to his people and to the world.

Image: Associated Press

Putin himself told a press conference Friday that peace talks with Ukraine should be renewed, but they "must reflect realities on the ground."

Reuters writes that "Three of the sources, familiar with discussions in Putin's entourage, said the veteran Russian leader had expressed frustration to a small group of advisers about what he views as Western-backed attempts to stymie negotiations and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's decision to rule out talks."

Any scenario which sees current lines frozen would mean Ukraine would have to cede substantial chunks of four Ukrainian regions. And in Kharkiv, for example, where a new Russian offensive is taking place, the border has been moved deeper into Ukrainian territory over the last weeks.

But Zelensky has repeatedly ruled out ceasefire negotiations with Moscow so long as Putin remains in power, calling this "impossible". 

The fact that the US just recently passed Biden's $61 billion in new defense aid for Ukraine also provides less incentive for Zelensky to come to the table, even if Ukraine continues losing many troops.

Ukraine media and officials have charged that any Putin ceasefire offer is in the end a ploy meant to buy time to reenforce and resupply his troops, and to solidify current battlefield gains.

If the lines were frozen today, what would it look like? Forbes outlines:

  • Russia occupies about 18% of Ukraine, including parts of the country’s four southeastern regions—Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson—according to the Council on Foreign Relations, a U.S.-based think tank.

  • Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told Reuters Russia did not want “eternal war,” adding Russia would not return territory in those four regions to Ukraine because they are now a permanent part of Russia.

  • Three sources suggested Putin would be against further advances into Ukraine because it would require another nationwide mobilization, after a previous call-up resulted in a dip in popularity for Putin.

Source: Institute for the Study of War

Putin is now said to be of the view that "gains in the war so far were enough to sell a victory to the Russian people."

According to more from the new Reuters report, "the sources said that Putin, re-elected in March for a new six-year term, would rather use Russia's current momentum to put the war behind him. They did not directly comment on the new defense minister."

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