US Housing Starts & Building Permits Plunge To COVID Lockdown Lows

US Housing Starts & Building Permits Plunge To COVID Lockdown Lows
US Housing Starts & Building Permits Plunge To COVID Lockdown Lows

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-housing-starts-building-permits-plunge-covid-lockdown-lows

继 4 月份业绩疲弱之后，经济学家预计 5 月份新屋开工和建筑许可将出现小幅改善。然而，他们再次低估，两个数字均大幅下降，分别下降了5.5%和3.8%。这标志着许可证数量连续第三个月减少。此前报道的 4 月份新屋开工增幅也有所下调，导致预测与实际数据之间的差距进一步扩大。开工率和许可证的季节性调整年率（SAAR）均创历史新低，上次出现在大流行时期。具体而言，单户住宅开工量下降至 982,000 套，较 1,031,000 套下降 4.8%，这是自 2023 年 10 月以来该数字首次跌破 100 万套。与此同时，多户住宅开工量接近历史低点，达到 278,000 套，同比下降 13.7%。较之前记录的 322,000 人减少了 %，这是自新冠危机开始以来的最低数字。此外，多户住宅许可证创下 2018 年 10 月以来的新低。单户住宅许可证略有下降，至 949,000 SAAR，较 977,000 下降 2.9%。至于多户家庭许可证，则大幅下降至 382,000 SAAR，较 407,000 减少了 6.1%。在潜在降息的持续不确定性中，住宅建筑行业尚未出现明显的复苏迹象。尽管人们对货币干预的希望挥之不去，但目前尚不清楚此类措施是否会显着影响这一趋势。

Despite ugly consumer confidence and soaring mortgage rates, analysts expected a small rebound in housing starts and building permits in May (after April's disappointing misses). They were wrong... again... as both Starts and Permits plunged MoM (-5.5% MoM and -3.8% MoM respectively)...

Source: Bloomberg

That was the third monthly drop in permits (more forward looking) in a row. Worse still, April Housing Starts were revised lower (from +5.7% to +4.1%), making this miss even worse.

This dragged the SAARs for starts and permits to their lowest since the trough of COVID...

Source: Bloomberg

With Multifamily starts falling back near COVID lockdown lows...

Single-Family 982K SAAR, down 4.8% from 1,031K and the first sub-million print since October 2023
Multi-Family 278K, down 13.7% from 322K and the lowest since March's 245K (which was the lowest print since covid crash)

Source: Bloomberg

And multi-family permits cratering to their lowest since Oct 2018...

Single-Family permits 949K SAAR, down 2.9% from 977K
Multi-Family permits 382K SAAR, down 6.1% from 407K

And with rate-cut expectations holding near their lows, there is no sign of recovery in home-building yet...

Source: Bloomberg

Will any rate-cut actually move the dial here?