突然事情发生了变化......
And Suddenly Things Change...

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/and-suddenly-things-change

简而言之,作者 James Howard Kunstler 认为,由于过去的政府干预措施,如 2008 年金融危机后的大量印钞、低利率和救助等,全球经济正面临重大挑战。 他表示,我们目前正在经历这些决定的后果,包括股市崩盘、债券市场崩溃以及衍生品市场问题。 Kunstler 表示,黄金和白银保持稳定,而大多数其他资产正在贬值。 他预测银行可能很快就会倒闭,对经济造成进一步损害。 昆斯特勒还指出,美国联邦债务严重影响了国家的未来前景。 他提到了2019年9月的回购市场痉挛及其对全球经济的影响。 昆斯特勒认为,政治家,特别是民主党人,将因其在这一充满挑战的时期对经济的处理而面临批评。 他认为当前的政治状况,特别是民主党,无法在货币体系崩溃造成的“经济大屠杀”中维持下去。 作者最后指出全球股市波动性加剧的可能性以及另一场金融危机的可能性。

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原文

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

“The global economy is becoming unburdened by what has been.”

- Jordan Schachtel on “X”

That two-by-four upside our country’s head you’ve been waiting to get whomped with? Looks like it’s landing now. We got a banger in 2008, but it didn’t make a much of an impression. Maybe you don’t even remember these people, but then Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and Fed Chair Ben Bernanke came in like a code blue squad and hooked up the banks to an IV-drip speedball of cocaine and heroin, i.e., “money” that didn’t actually exist (a.k.a. “liquidity,” hallucinated capital), and that crew kept it coming for years.

And then Janet Yellen and her posse kept it coming with never-ending zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) until the national debt canceled America’s future. And that left Jerome Powell pretending there was a way out of this doom-loop. Then came the repo market spasm in September 2019 that freaked out the blob so badly they shut down the whole world with Covid and locked-down economies. And everything since then has been a waiting game.

The financial world was in hospice.

The wait is over. Everything that can break is breaking: stock markets, bond markets, the galaxy of derivatives — bets on this and that, which will never be honored. Banks are next. Gold and silver are hanging in there for dear life just now, because they’re actually worth something.

(And because they are worth something, they‘ll eventually sell off some too, to cover margin calls on other stuff hemorrhaging value. But they will not go to zero  like a lot of other stuff, and they’ll come back stronger.)

You understand this can’t play out like it did in 2008-9. The authorities are out of tricks and out of fake money. They can try the emergency interest rate cut, but it won’t change what is actually happening: the epic revaluation of everything humans make and own — with much of it losing value and quite a bit losing all value because it never really had any. The spooky catch is that there will be an attempt in this wild and terrifying process, for certain devious, unprincipled  parties to take possession of many things shaking loose — what remains of collateral. . . real things. . . commodities. . . facilities. . . properties. . . chattels. . . artworks. . . and, of course, whatever securities still have a relationship to realities of production.

This brings a sharp end to the current political sitcom, especially the situation of the Democratic Party. They will get blamed for the economic carnage left behind by the shattered money system.

They lied about everything for years, every number, every index, every supposed “policy”.

Kamala Harris won’t be cackling her way out of this.

It’s hard to see how she might remain the party’s nominee. She can’t even speak to the massive catalog of prior failures to govern our country coherently and effectively. And it’s equally hard to figure how “Joe Biden,” still presiding emptily over this fiasco, can get Twenty-fifthed out of the way for his feckless veep. More likely, the coming convention will be a desperate, bloody mass cage fight and somebody else will stagger out of it to go through the motions of campaigning in a hopeless cause. Hillary might even decline the roll in this horror show.

Now, I began writing this post well before dawn, eastern time. The action in Asia, across the international date line, was a slaughter. Europe got smacked hard, but not catastrophically. Maybe the Wall Street wonderboys can stop the bleeding here, but the futures numbers sure look grim. I’ll come back later when the US markets have spoken and add a few observations on the situation.

Oh, and you’ve probably noticed that World War Three is shaping up to kick off today. Interesting times. . . And I’m supposed to be on vacation this week.

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