由于劳动力市场发出混合信号,首次申请失业救济人数再次下降
Initial Jobless Claims Drop Again As Labor Market Sends Mixed Signals

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/initial-jobless-claims-drop-again-labor-market-sends-mixed-signals

首次申请失业救济人数继续在三年来的同一区间内徘徊,未经调整的申请失业救济人数几乎接近历史低点,正好赶上美联储在最近对就业人数进行近乎创纪录的修正后降息。 几乎就好像劳工部的一只手(初始索赔报告)不知道另一只手(工资单,特别是修订)在做什么。 按地区划分,首次申请失业救济人数(未经调整)大部分位于西部地区,其次是南部和东北部。 南澳州和国家安全局索赔额的下降似乎是由得克萨斯州索赔额在 Beryl 事件后正常化推动的……按州细分的索赔额每周变化显示,本周没有明显的异常值。 但我们注意到,持续申请失业救济人数仍处于 2021 年 11 月以来的最高水平……随着所有注意力都集中在支持看涨叙事的初请失业金人数上,美联储如何才能扭转局面并降息以“拯救” 劳动力市场'在为时已晚之前?

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原文

Initial jobless claims continue to drift along in the same range it has been in for three years, with unadjusted claims literally near record lows, just in time for the Fed to cut rates following the recent near-record revision to payrolls. Almost as if one hand of the Dept of Labor (initial claims reports) is unaware of what the other hand (Payrolls and especially revisions) is doing.

Broken down by region, the bulk of initial claims (unadjusted) was in the West, followed by the South and Northeast.

The decline in SA and NSA claims appears driven by the normalization of Texas claim post-Beryl...

The weekly change in claims, broken down by state, shows no notable outliers this week.

But we note that continuing jobless claims remains at its highest since Nov 2021...

With all the attention piled on to initial claims to support bullish-narrative-supporting thesis, how the hell can The Fed then turn around and cut rates to 'save the labor market' before it's too late?

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