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高盛表示，低于五的收益表明“核心客户面临压力并正在减少可自由支配的支出” 
Goldman Says Five Below's Earnings Indicate "Core Customer Pressured & Is Reducing Discretionary Spending" 

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-five-belows-earnings-warn-core-customer-pressured-reducing-discretionary

折扣零售商 Five Below 公布的第二季度销售增长好于预期，尽管可比商店销售额与预测相比略有下降。 尽管降低了年度销售预测，但仍超出了预期。 第二季度，Five Below 的净销售额为 8.301 亿美元（预计为 8.22 亿美元），可比销售额为负值 (-5.7%)，而预计为 -6.4%。 今年该公司新开了 62 家门店，高于预期。 对于第三季度，Five Below 预计净销售额将在 780-8 亿美元之间，可比销售额将出现个位数下降，调整后每股收益将在 10 美分至 22 美分之间。 全年预测包括预计净销售额范围为 $3.73B-$3.80B，而之前的估计为 $3.79B-$3.87B。 高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 的凯特·麦克沙恩 (Kate McShane) 观察到第二季度的平均交易量下降，这表明消费者可能会减少非必需品的购买，并发现“五以下”产品的吸引力下降。 据推测，自那时以来，流量有所改善，但由于购物者压力增加，转化率可能仍然较低。 麦克沙恩表示，有证据表明低收入家庭存在降价消费，这可能会暂时对转换产生负面影响。 然而，富裕群体的降价模式提供了一些鼓励，尽管它们会给“五以下”的表现带来暂时的压力。

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原文

Highlighting mixed consumer trends, discount retailer Five Below reported a smaller-than-expected decline in second-quarter comparable sales, beating analysts' projections tracked by Bloomberg. Although the company lowered its full-year comparable sales forecast, it still exceeded analysts' expectations.

Here's a snapshot of second-quarter results (courtesy of Bloomberg):

  • Net sales $830.1 million, +9.4% y/y, estimate $822 million

  • Comparable sales -5.7%, estimate -6.4%

  • EPS 60c vs. 84c y/y, estimate 54c

  • Total location count 1,667, +3.9% q/q, estimate 1,660

  • Stores opening 62, +55% y/y, estimate 60

Third quarter forecast: 

  • Sees net sales $780 million to $800 million, estimate $790.2 million

  • Sees a mid-single-digit decrease in comparable sales

  • Sees adjusted EPS 10c to 22c, estimate 15c

  • Sees net loss $2 million to $13 million

Full-year forecast:

  • Sees net sales $3.73 billion to $3.80 billion, saw $3.79 billion to $3.87 billion, estimate $3.78 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)

  • Sees comparable sales about -5.5% to -4%, saw -5% to -3%, estimate -5.9%

  • Sees adjusted EPS $4.35 to $4.71, saw $5.00 to $5.40, estimate $4.75

  • Sees net income $220 million to $244 million

  • Sees gross capital expenditures about $335 million to $345 million

Commenting on Five Below's mixed earnings is Goldman's Kate McShane.

McShane noted that "declines in comp ticket during 2Q with lower units per transaction" only "suggests that FIVE's core customer remains pressured and is continuing to reduce discretionary spending, and that FIVE's assortment is not currently providing an attractive value to their customers." 

"While we were encouraged to hear that traffic trends have improved quarter to date, conversion likely remains pressured as guidance implies that comp trends for 2H24 will be similar to 2Q's -5.7%," McShane said. 

She continued, "We also note that FIVE continues to see diverging trends between income cohorts, with softer trends from lower-income households but stronger trends from higher-income households, suggesting at least some element of trade down is taking place. Although the implied trade-down trends are encouraging, we believe pressure on FIVE's lower-income customers will continue to weigh on conversion in the near term." 

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