对消费者来说“不受欢迎的消息”:巴西农业巨头的牛肉供应因美国牛紧缩而下滑 
"Unwelcome News" For Consumers: Ag Juggernaut Brazil's Beef Supplies To Slide Amid Cattle Crunch In US 

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/unwelcoming-news-consumers-ag-juggernaut-brazils-beef-supplies-slide-amid-cattle-crunch

由于美国供应不足和巴西牛肉产量下降,牛肉需求增加可能会导致汉堡价格在不久的将来上涨。 巴西牛肉供应量的减少可能会导致全球牛肉生产成本增加。 这一趋势出现之际,由于目前美国国内牛肉供应紧张,巴西增加了对美国的牛肉出口。 咨询公司Datagro预测,明年巴西的动物屠宰率将下降4.6%,2026年将下降7.5%,这意味着南美洲几十年来不断扩大的牛肉产能的停滞或逆转。 随着美国公司寻求牛肉的替代来源,JBS SA、Marfrig Global Foods SA 和 Minerva SA 等巴西公司可能会陷入困境。 2022 年,美国进口的加拿大和墨西哥牛肉数量超过了巴西牛肉进口量,但最近的趋势表明,美国牛肉生产越来越依赖巴西牛肉。 尽管一些政界人士建议采取共产主义式的价格控制作为解决方案,但由于增加美国肉牛供应的选择有限,零售碎牛肉价格继续攀升。 预计美国肉牛供应在 2026 年之前不会出现有意义的复苏,可能需要长期努力。 然而,以农业投资而闻名的比尔·盖茨或许能够提供解决方案。

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原文

The combination of extremely tight beef supplies in the US, with the national cattle herd size sliding to the lowest levels since 1951 and new estimates of declining beef production in agricultural juggernaut Brazil, points to elevated burger prices for the foreseeable future, yet more bad news for cash-strapped consumers struggling with rampant food inflation.

Bloomberg cited consulting firm Datagro analyst Joao Otavio Figueiredo's presentation at a conference in Sao Paulo this week, which noted Brazil's cattle availability is expected to decline as early as next year. This essentially means the cost of producing beef will rise, straining global supplies of red meat at a time when the South American country has ramped up exports of beef to the US. 

Figueiredo expects Brazil's animal slaughter rates to fall 4.6% next year and 7.5% in 2026. This means that years of expanding beef production capacity in South America are ending abruptly. This is happening at a time when US companies are turning to Brazil for beef supplies to counter extremely tight domestic supplies, the lowest since 1951. 

"The reduction in the Brazilian cattle herd comes when beef production is already constrained by a severe shortage of slaughter-weight animals in the US, which has eroded profits for processors such as Tyson Foods Inc. and Cargill Inc. That is unwelcome news for JBS SA, Marfrig Global Foods SA and Minerva SA, which rely on Brazilian cattle for a sizable share of their beef output," Bloomberg noted. 

Notice how US meat imports from Brazil have ramped up in the last several years.

Data from Statista shows that in 2022 , the imports of beef from Canada and Mexico to the US were 51%, while Brazil was in the number three spot with 14%. 

No one is coming to the rescue to save the rapidly deteriorating US beef cattle herd.

Retail ground beef prices at the supermarket continue marching higher.

According to VP Harris, the solution to rising beef and food prices is communist price controls... 

We don't expect a meaningful rebound in the nation's beef cattle supply until at least 2026. It will take years.

Maybe the Fed can print more beef? Oh wait, no, but you know who can: Bill Gates.

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