By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management
Move On:
“Congratulations on becoming the richest man in the world,” said JP Morgan to Andrew Carnegie in 1901, merging various industrial firms into US Steel. The new firm was capitalized at $1.4bln and became the world’s most valuable company (the US federal budget in 1901 was $517mm for comparison). Carnegie was born in Scotland in 1835. His mom was an impoverished weaver, disrupted by mechanized weaving. She moved Andrew to Pennsylvania. At 13 he went to work in a cotton mill, earning $1.20 for a 12hr day. Morgan paid him $492mm.
Carnegie spent the last 20yrs of his life giving away 90% of his fortune. Beginning in 1880, he built 2,500 libraries in the US, Canada, Britain - feeding hungry young minds. The 1st was in his hometown of Dunfermline, Scotland. By his death in 1919, half the US public libraries had been built by Carnegie. Colonel James Anderson let apprentices and working boys borrow books from his personal library when Carnegie was a kid. “To him I owe a taste for literature which I would not exchange for all the millions that were ever amassed by man.”
US Steel was so dominant that it inspired anti-trust laws. In 1943 it employed 340k workers, supporting the war effort. In 1953 it produced 35.8 million tons of steel, while Europe and Japan struggled to rebuild their productive capacity. But it was slow to innovate and relied on old technology. It now produces 14.5 million tons and is the world’s 27th largest producer. In 1991 it was kicked out of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Japan’s Nippon Steel is trying to buy US Steel for $14.9bln. Our politicians seem to care. But America moves on.
Whatever it Takes:
Draghi in his argument for a new EU industrial strategy calls for 800bln euros of new annual investment spending. At 4.7% of GDP, it’s double the scale of the Marshall Plan relative to the size of the economy. Imagine that bureaucratic trough. And setting aside the fact that the Germans, who would have to shoulder yet more Italian debt, will never agree to anything remotely close to this, it is worth asking why Europe would turn to a former central banker to draft plans for an economic renaissance? Perhaps they misunderstand their problems.
In the 12yrs since Draghi’s “whatever it takes” speech [here], Europe’s benchmark Euro Stoxx 50 index has rallied +108% ex dividends (+67% in real terms). The S&P 500 is +196% higher (+126% on a real basis). When it comes to producing real prosperity, manipulating money is never the answer. In 2012, EU GDP was $14.6trln and has grown to $18.4trln (2023). US GDP over that period has grown from $16.3trln to $27.4trln. The divergence is utterly staggering. And now, of the globe’s top 25 largest companies, just one is European [here].