“特朗普和平协议的轮廓”:克里姆林宫内部人士讨论普京的初步反应
'Contours Of A Trump Peace Deal': Kremlin Insiders Discuss Putin's Initial Reaction

原始链接: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/contours-trump-peace-deal-kremlin-insiders-discuss-putins-initial-reaction

据路透社报道,俄罗斯总统普京愿意与特朗普讨论停火,但不会交出在乌克兰东部获得的领土。 一个关键的症结是乌克兰加入北约的愿望,而俄罗斯对此表示反对。 克里姆林宫赞成永久冻结当前前线的冲突。 他们担心短期停战将使乌克兰能够重新武装,而导致战争的根本问题仍然得不到解决。 俄罗斯愿意考虑为乌克兰提供安全保障,包括限制其武装部队规模和保护俄语的使用。 然而,他们强调,任何协议都必须防止西方直接卷入与俄罗斯的冲突。 由于拜登政府仍在掌权,人们担心不断升级的紧张局势(例如部署杀伤人员地雷)可能会在特朗普上任之前导致更广泛的北约与俄罗斯冲突。

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原文

In a lengthy investigative report, Reuters has presented what it says is Russian President Vladimir Putin's initial reaction to the incoming Trump administration's plans to pursue ceasefire negotiations leading to a final end of the Ukraine war, which reached its 1,000th day this week.

As Putin "eyes contours of a Trump peace deal," five sources privy to Kremlin thinking say that Putin is "open" to discussing a ceasefire with Donald Trump, but will reject giving up territory acquired in Ukraine's east - namely the annexed Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

A key sticking point will also be that Kiev totally abandons ambitions to join NATO. The Wall Street Journal revealed earlier this month that the current options being considered by Trump all involve imposing a 'freeze' on the war, which to Kiev's dismay would involve "cementing Russia’s seizure of roughly 20 percent of Ukraine" while imposing a 20-year suspension on Ukraine pursuing NATO membership.

And now, Reuters writes, "In the first detailed reporting of what President Putin would accept in any deal brokered by Trump, the five current and former Russian officials said the Kremlin could broadly agree to freeze the conflict along the front lines."

The Kremlin is believed less interested in a short-term truce, fearing that it would just be used to rearm Ukraine, and that the same problems which caused the war would persist. Putin said at the Valdai discussion group weeks ago, "If there is no neutrality, it is difficult to imagine the existence of any good-neighborly relations between Russia and Ukraine."

"Why? Because this would mean that Ukraine will be constantly used as a tool in the wrong hands and to the detriment of the interests of the Russian Federation," he added. Thus from Moscow's viewpoint, a solid and lasting peace deal would permanently address those elements which could lead to resumption of future conflict. Putin had emphasized a deal must reflect "realities" on the ground.

"Putin has already said that freezing the conflict will not work in any way," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Reuters on Tuesday. "And the missile authorization is a very dangerous escalation on the part of the United States."

Perhaps the most important part of the Reuters report is seen in the following:

While Russia will not tolerate Ukraine joining NATO, or the presence of NATO troops on Ukrainian soil, it is open to discussing security guarantees for Kyiv, according to the five current and former officials.

Other Ukrainian concessions the Kremlin could push for include Kyiv agreeing to limit the size of its armed forces and committing not to restrict the use of the Russian language, the people said.

This certainly creates a diplomatic opening. Ukraine officials are demanding robust security guarantees agreed to by Russia and backed by the West. They will especially press this point if Kiev is forced to abandon its NATO membership aspirations.

Mostly likely this would center on locking in security guarantees backed by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council: Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States.

Importantly, a Russian official cited in the Reuters report acknowledged there will likely be no agreement unless Ukraine is granted security guarantees, but that for Moscow it all hinges on one thing: "The question is how to avoid a deal that locks the West into a possible direct confrontation with Russia one day."

But with two months still to go with the Biden administration, and his hawkish national security officials bent on constant escalation (recklessness which is now being paralleled in the UK's greenlighting Storm Shadow missiles launched on Russian territory), will the region even make it to Jan.20 before exploding into bigger NATO-Russia war?

Moon of Alabama has observed of the latest escalatory policies issued from the White House:

U.S. president Joe Biden was found to be too senile to stand for re-election. But that does not hinder the powers that be to let him launch world war III.

After 'allowing' Ukraine to fire U.S. controlled ballistic missiles onto targets in Russia the Biden administration is adding largely prohibited antipersonnel mines into the mix.

Over 160 countries, including Ukraine, have signed treaties which prohibit the use of antipersonnel mines. During his campaign Biden had spoken against the use of such weapons.

Ukraine is still vowing to fight on, despite all the reports of President-elect Trump's plan to push hard for peace. Zelensky on Wednesday said his country "will not rest until every last Russian soldier is ejected from its territory - based on the borders it gained after the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union."

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