It's almost that time of year when a polar vortex split occurs, displacing cold Arctic air from the Earth's North Pole into Canada and spilling into the Lower 48. 

Data from Bloomberg shows that mentions of "polar vortex" in corporate media typically begin to surge in late December or the first half of January, signaling that the countdown has begun. 

On Wednesday, private weather forecaster BAMWX pushed out new weather models on X, showing confidence is growing for a polar vortex split to occur for the Lower 48. 

"The stage is set for Arctic outbreaks to round out December and kick start the new year!" BAMWX wrote on X. 

BAMWX said, "More favorable trends for stronger cold fronts in week 2. I don't see any signs of a consistent torch in the eastern US. Ensembles cannot resolve the +TNH & +PNA pattern right now making them consistently too warm late week 2." 

Michael Clark, chief meteorologist for BAMWX, was confident about the incoming polar vortex.

Clark also sees a more active precipitation pattern for the eastern half of the US. 

"The persistence in the PNA and the TPV (500mb tropospheric polar vortex location is the reason we believe the storms can easily pull down the Arctic air behind them," BAMWX said. 

The eastern half of the US appears to be setting up for a cold Christmas. 

And possibly a white one...

"Both GFS and ECMWF AI model data hinting at a bigger storm threat ~22nd of Dec," BAMWX wrote in a forecast.

Here's more from Clark in a video titled "Stage set for ARCTIC OUTBREAKS to start 2025" ...