Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

I was happy to welcome my friend Peter Schiff back on to Fringe Finance this past week, where I was able to get his take on a couple of the items I wrote about on the blog last week - most importantly, whether or not he thinks markets will crash up (hyperinflation) or down (deflationary depression).

Schiff and I also talked about his perspectives on markets, government policies, and the future of Bitcoin and gold. I also asked Schiff about his miscalculations, primarily underestimating the length of time it would take for economic reckoning and on bitcoin.

Speaking from his residence in Puerto Rico, Schiff painted a dire picture of the U.S. economy, marked by excessive debt, misguided monetary policies, and misplaced optimism.

Schiff’s outlook on the markets remains grim. “The market is already very expensive,” he observed, highlighting that “the optimism factored in is misplaced.” He warned of an impending reckoning, exacerbated by years of deficit spending and inflationary policies: “We have a $36.2 trillion debt that’ll soon reach $40 trillion. This is unsustainable.”

"The market is already very expensive. It’s hard to see parabolic upside when optimism is misplaced. The markets are expecting good things to happen that aren’t going to happen." - Peter Schiff

On whether markets are set to “crash up or crash down,” Schiff remarked, “Higher inflation is baked in, but that’s not good for the dollar. The markets are wrong to think it is.” His skepticism extends to the Federal Reserve, which he accused of sacrificing long-term economic health for short-term stability: “The Fed is a one-trick pony. Its solution to every problem is to inflate, mask the problem, and hope it goes away.”

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Schiff remains an unwavering advocate for gold, dismissing Bitcoin as a speculative bubble. He criticized Bitcoin’s lack of utility, stating, “It’s not digital gold; it’s not digital anything.” Contrasting it with gold, Schiff argued, “Gold has intrinsic value and has been a store of wealth for millennia. Bitcoin has failed to be money for 15 years.”

Taking aim at Michael Saylor’s proposal for the U.S. government to sell its gold reserves to buy Bitcoin, Schiff called it “a horrible idea” and dismissed Saylor’s comments as “self-serving.” He continued, “Bitcoin is not a reserve asset; it’s a speculative tool that has concentrated risk.”

Schiff also lambasted the speculative frenzy surrounding Bitcoin ETFs and institutional purchases: “Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy have cornered 8% of Bitcoin’s total supply. That’s a bubble waiting to burst.”

"Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy have already cornered 8% of Bitcoin’s supply. That’s concentration risk in a speculative bubble,” Schiff said. “Michael Saylor’s proposal for the U.S. to sell its gold for Bitcoin is not just a bad idea—it’s delusional. It’s putting all your eggs in one highly speculative basket."

Schiff highlighted the worsening state of the U.S. economy: “People are working harder for less real income, drowning in debt, and paying 25% interest on credit cards. This is the reality behind the so-called recovery.” He lambasted the bipartisan reluctance to address deficits: “Trump promised to cut deficits but signed every debt-busting bill put on his desk. Nothing will change under his leadership.”

We also discussed:

• Market outlook: Speculation on whether markets will experience an inflationary rise or deflationary crash
• Federal Reserve policies: Predictions about the Fed’s actions concerning inflation and interest rates
• Inflation expectations: Discussion about how inflation impacts the economy and the U.S. dollar
• Government deficits: Criticism of rising budget and trade deficits under various administrations.
• Trump’s economic policies: Evaluation of Trump's promises versus the reality of government spending and deficits
• Impact of tax cuts: Debate over whether tax cuts would stimulate the economy or worsen the deficit
• Military and welfare spending: Criticism of increases in military and welfare spending despite calls for fiscal restraint.
• Gold and currency: The comparative value of gold versus the U.S. dollar and other assets.
• Bitcoin and cryptocurrency: Analysis of Bitcoin’s perceived value, speculative nature, and potential risks.
• Comparative risk of assets: Comparison between speculative investment in Bitcoin and traditional markets.
• Historical trends in gold ETFs: Analysis of gold's stability and its market dynamics versus Bitcoin.
• Government intervention in Bitcoin: Concerns over potential government involvement in Bitcoin markets
• Critique of modern monetary theory (MMT): Dismissal of MMT as a sustainable economic approach
• Economic bubbles and malinvestment: Concerns over the allocation of capital into unproductive sectors
• Debt servicing crisis: Warnings about rising interest payments on national debt
• Future economic predictions: Forecasts of a potential dollar crisis or significant inflationary period

You can watch the entire hourlong interview here. 

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