By now, unless you were living under a rock or so focused on your kids opening their gifts you forgot to check your phone for news, you'll be aware of what the mainstream media is gloatingly calling a 'civil war' breaking out between the MAGA right of Trump's base and the Musk-ian middle over the topic of 'legal' immigration - specifically H1Bs.

As we detailed fully here, not all immigration is bad, but focus on Americans first. To over-simplify the issues (well maybe not):

• There is a contingent of MAGA that wants a total shutdown of migrant activity and a moratorium on work visas.  

• On the other side, some in MAGA want to end illegal immigration while supporting legal immigration of skilled workers.

• The threat of a complete shut down of all immigration, including skilled workers, has the tech industry concerned. 

The tensions escalated (and were obviously amplified by the media) after Elon and Vivek turned the rhetoric dial up to '11' with comments about "war" and "go fucking yourself" as well as implicit reflections on the lack of work culture among young American workers - none of which which plays well against the longstanding DEI backdrop of white students, and white employees, being passed over for non-whites with similar scores and credentials.

As 'sundance' wrote at The Last Refuge:

It always appeared the MAGA alignment with Silicon Valley would not be an issue until the interests of the billionaire tech team came into conflict with the MAGA base.  I did not anticipate the fracture being so fast, nor did I anticipate immigration would be the trigger.  However, H1B visa issuance is apparently a key part of the Silicon Valley business model.

That said, several pragmatic aspects of the discussion are now being lost amid a very toxic shouting match that has begun.

We would agree - a lot of nuance has been lost in the furor.

Former RFK Jr. running mate Nicole Shanahan wrote a lengthy statement on X (but this introduction nailed it):

“Having lived in Silicon Valley for 20+ years and founded and sold an AI company, I’ve seen firsthand how we rely on H-1B to fill grueling, unglamorous coding jobs. These jobs are essential, and we need capable people doing them. But the system needs an overhaul."

Overhaul indeed...

While Silicon Valley may indeed be short of coders, we find it hard to believe America is suffering enough of a shortage of Golf Instructors to warrant H1Bs...

...or math teachers...

Of course, none of this is new.

Here's Trump in March 2016:

"Megyn Kelly asked about highly-skilled immigration. The H- 1B program is neither high-skilled nor immigration: these are temporary foreign workers, imported from abroad, for the explicit purpose of substituting for American workers at lower pay. I remain totally committed to eliminating rampant, widespread H-1B abuse and ending outrageous practices such as those that occurred at Disney in Florida when Americans were forced to train their foreign replacements. I will end forever the use of the H-1 B as a cheap labor program, and institute an absolute requirement to hire American workers first for every visa and immigration program. No exceptions."

...and remember this from 2020...

...to which Musk responded at the time...

But H1B denial rates surged under Trump's last term...

So far, Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg have been quiet on the subject - perhaps this chart explains why...

May we humbly suggest there is a balance between Biden's 2% denial rate (basically no denial at all - even golf instructors and math teachers) and Trump's 24% denial (show us your special skills and here's the red carpet, otherwise 'nope').

The Biden administration reversed some restrictive policies introduced during Trump’s administration, though recent proposed policies have become more restrictive as well...

Big Tech and IT outsourcing now receive nearly equal volumes of H-1B approvals, a shift from 2017-2018 landscape where IT outsourcing dominated. Big Tech companies have ramped up H-1B sponsorships as they have grown their US headcount significantly over the past decade. Since 2017-18, when IT outsourcing firms led in H-1B approvals, the landscape has shifted. As of 2024, Big Tech and IT outsourcing now receive nearly equal volumes of H-1B approvals.

Finally, while the mainstream media is more than happy to perpetuate this splintering among Trump's supporters, we suggest getting worked up now is futile since the Biden administration has already enacted more restrictive rules which are due to be put in place in early 2025.

“U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services [USCIS] is committed to the president's goal of restoring faith in the legal immigration system and attracting global talent,” said a USCIS spokesperson.

“USCIS will continue to promote policies and procedures that attract the best international talent, expand economic prosperity, maintain America’s competitive edge in STEM fields and uphold the country’s promise as a nation of welcome and possibility with fairness, integrity and respect for all we serve.”

However, as we noted previously, as usual, whenever there is a divisive issue causing internal conflict and debate among conservative groups there are doom mongers that dance around the edges and act as if the entire movement is suddenly fracturing.  Conservatives have never agreed on solutions – This is normal. 

They are not a hive mind like the political left, which is a good thing.  Such debates are a sign of a healthy political process.     

What we really have here is an artificially created either/or scenario; skilled labor shortages should be treated as a "why not do both" scenario.

In the long term, the national education system needs to be completely overhauled and a focus on practical skills and advanced STEM has to be championed.  Incentives to lure Americans back into science and engineering fields may be necessary. 

The US can do both:  Cut immigration down to only the best and brightest, or down to labor pools with proven shortages, while also encouraging native-born American interest in such fields and creating a domestic pool of skilled assets.