Starting in December the head of the UN nuclear watchdog, IAEA, warned that Iran is "dramatically" accelerating enrichment close to the roughly 90% level which is weapons-grade.
On Tuesday President Emmanuel Macron called Iran the main "strategic and security challenge" for France and Europe. "The acceleration of the nuclear program leads us nearly to the point of no return," he told an annual conference of French ambassadors.
However, it remains anything but clear whether the Islamic Republic has actually decided to build a nuclear weapon, something recently (and surprisingly) acknowledged by the CIA.
Still, the constant daily headlines over Iran's enrichment advances set things up for a collision course with the Trump administration after the Jan.20 inauguration.
According to a fresh report in Axios, the chances of Trump ordering a preemptive military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities are now higher than ever:
Iran's recent nuclear advances give President-elect Trump a crucial decision to make in his first months in office: Try to neutralize the threat through negotiations and pressure, or order a military strike.
Trump's decision in 2018 to withdraw from an Obama-era nuclear deal prompted Tehran to accelerate its nuclear program, such that it's now a de facto "nuclear threshold state." Officials and diplomats from the U.S., EU and Israel all told Axios they expect Trump to face an Iran crisis in 2025.
Trump and his advisers are planning to quickly return to the "maximum pressure" campaign they conducted against Iran between 2018 and 2020.
Axios further underscores that "Several Trump advisers privately concede Iran's program is now so far along that the strategy might not be effective. That makes a military option a real possibility."
But it remains that US attacks on the Islamic Republic would only surely accelerate possible efforts to achieve a bomb. Much of the country's nuclear infrastructure and technology is now likely underground, which would make it hard for any external power to destroy everything.
Though in prior years the Ayatollahs have condemned nuclear weapons as 'unIslamic' - if the Iranians perceive themselves under direct threat of annihilation, they would urgently feel the need to rapidly have a bomb.
Below is more from Axios on Trump expressing his position on the prior campaign trail:
Back in October, Trump criticized President Biden for advising Israel not to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities. “They asked him, what do you think about Iran, would you hit Iran? And he goes, ‘As long as they don’t hit the nuclear stuff.’ That’s the thing you want to hit, right?” Trump said at a campaign rally.
It's no secret that Iran has also long been engaged in sanctions-busting activity regarding global oil transit, and selling to powerful BRICS countries like China. Trump is expected to get 'tough' on that as well, and he has already nominated plenty of Iran hawks to top foreign policy positions.
But from Tehran's perspective, the problem remains that Israel possesses a large undeclared nuclear arsenal, which has long been an 'open secret'. If Iran does pursue a nuke, it will be to establish a balance of power and deterrent against Israel and the United States in the region.
Ironically if Trump does order 'preemptive' military strikes on Iran in the name of stopping WMD, this will be deeply contradictory to his stated aims on the campaign trail of wanting to stop and reign in US wars abroad.