As of the start of this week, the Kremlin said 'no progress' had been made in arranging peace talks on Ukraine between Moscow and Washington. Rumors and speculation abound, given that US diplomats under Trump are without doubt working behind-the-scenes to arrange something, with the possibility that talks could be hosted in a 'neutral' location like Saudi Arabia or the UAE.

A Thursday Daily Mail report has just added immense fuel to the fire of speculation, presenting the allegedly leaked Trump ceasefire plan which he intends to present for Russia's consideration. The report says Trump will try to 'force' Ukraine's President Zelensky to agree to a ceasefire by Easter, which is on April 20 this year.

The Trump administration is seeking to end the war within 100 days. "The unconfirmed plans, reported by Ukrainian outlet Strana, have been doing the rounds in 'political and diplomatic circles' in Ukraine, and will include a ceasefire by April 20 that would freeze Russia's steady advance, a ban on Ukraine from joining NATO, and a demand for Kyiv to accept Russian sovereignty on annexed land."

While still very much unconfirmed, the headline is having an immediate impact on oil prices. Zelensky's office has vehemently denied the legitimacy of reports of the peace plans being reported and floated.

On top of these alleged key aspects of a ban on NATO admission, freezing the front lines, and agreeing to Russian sovereignty over the four annexed territories in the east, the leaked report says the following is also included in the proposal:

• On top of this, Ukrainian troops will be made to leave Russia's Kursk region, where it launched a counteroffensive in August, while a contingent of European soldiers, which could include British troops, would be asked to police a demilitarised zone. American troops will not be involved in this contingent. 
• The EU will reportedly be asked to assist Ukraine in its reconstruction efforts, which may cost as much as $486billion (£392billion) over the next decade according to the German Marshall Fund thinktank. 
• The plans will reportedly begin with a phone call between Zelensky and Vladimir Putin in early February, a meeting between the two warring leaders in late February to early March and an official ceasefire declaration of a ceasefire by April 20. 
• A declaration on the agreed parameters for ending the war would then be released by May 9, after which Kyiv would be asked not to extend martial law or mobilize troops.

This essentially gives Moscow most everything it wants - particularly the ban on NATO admission - and so if true the plan is likely to be entertained positively by Putin.

Zelensky has been complaining that talks about Ukraine between the US and Russia must never happen without Kiev's representation and input, but Zelensky it seems is being left behind. He'll likely reject the above 'leaked' plan, but for Moscow and Washington that probably won't matter too much.

The most immediate reactions are in gold (lower) and oil (lower)...

Below is a further breakdown on the alleged leaked plan...

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Ceasefire by Easter: 

NATO Membership: Ukraine would be barred from joining NATO under the plan.

Territorial Concessions: Kyiv would recognize Russian sovereignty over annexed lands and withdraw troops from Kursk.

Demilitarized Zone: European, possibly British, troops would police it; no U.S. involvement.

Reconstruction: EU assistance sought for Ukraine, estimated at $486 billion over a decade.

Timeline:

1) Early February: Zelensky-Putin phone call.

2) Late February to early March: Leaders' meeting.

3) April 20: Ceasefire declaration.

4) By May 9: Agreement terms released, no further martial law or mobilization.

5) Additional Support: Continued U.S. military aid for Ukraine, with a pathway to EU membership by 2030.