Authored by Pat Fallon via RealClearDefense,

U.S. intelligence predicts a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2027, just two short years away. The fall of Taiwan would ensure China corners the world’s market for semiconductor chips—used in everything from cars to smartphones to satellites. A victory here for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) would also no doubt embolden the authoritarian regime’s expansionist ambitions elsewhere. 

The CCP has made it abundantly clear that its goal is to challenge U.S. global dominance and undermine the West politically, economically, and militarily. It’s no secret that China’s military expansion is proceeding at an alarming rate, even after you account for Beijing’s propaganda campaigns. Without a robust navy, the U.S. will be unable to project power in the Indo-Pacific and maintain the capability to deter CCP belligerence. In fact, while the U.S. Navy currently holds a technological advantage in terms of the ships and weapons systems at its disposal, China’s navy currently holds a four-to-one advantage in terms of ships deployed to the region. The United States would likely struggle to replace the loss of even a portion of its fleet should it become involved in a hot conflict with China in the near future. 

The CCP has made up significant ground thanks to the weak leadership and inaction seen under the Biden Administration. At the same time, the focus of U.S. defense policy on counterinsurgency and post-Cold War consolidation has contributed to an atrophied defense industrial base. China has capitalized on this golden opportunity to modernize its military in significant ways, namely shipbuilding. 

As of 2024, China controls over half of the world’s commercial shipbuilding market, while the United States’ share is about 0.1 percent. China’s gains and the United States’ shortcomings present a major threat to our national security and that of our allies and partners. Today, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is the largest in the world in terms of the number of ships, and it's expected to have a fleet of 425 ships by 2030. In comparison, the U.S. Navy is projected to have around 300 battle-ready ships. 

The most critical aspect of China’s naval expansion is its focus on quantity, speed, and versatility. While the U.S. Navy has traditionally focused on deploying fewer but more technologically advanced ships, China has adopted a strategy of sheer volume, rapidly expanding the capabilities of its fleet. Additionally, China’s aggressive pursuit of advanced naval systems, such as anti-ship missiles and nuclear-powered submarines, positions them as a major threat to U.S. naval dominance. As the PLAN grows in size and technological assets, it creates significant challenges for the U.S. and its allies in maintaining military strength and preventing conflicts in the Indo-Pacific. 

Because unlike the U.S., which has two coasts to defend, China’s shipbuilding efforts are mainly centered around a single state-owned institution: China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC). By employing the concept of  “military-civil fusion,” about 75% of CSSC’s commercial production is sold to outside buyers, enabling them to funnel extensive funds as well as new technologies back into China’s drive to modernize. Some of these outside buyers in recent years include our own allies—Japan, South Korea, France, Greece, and Denmark. Even more worrisome, Taiwan has purchased a large quantity from these high-risk shipyards, despite the CCP’s constant threats of aggression towards the island. We must emphasize the shared risks posed to our allies and partners by their continued, even indirect, support for CSSC, which poses a considerable risk to U.S. national security and underscores the need for increased domestic production here at home.

Restoring the United States’ shipbuilding industry must be viewed as a national security priority. 

This is a daunting task, but the U.S. defense establishment cannot sit idle and cede this industry to our greatest adversary. While it may not be feasible to completely surpass Chinese production levels in the near future, the U.S. can still ensure that we have immediate access to the resources our navy needs by increasing funding for stockpiles of various crucial munitions, including long-range anti-ship missiles, torpedoes, and standard missiles. 

The overall dilapidated state and overcentralization on the East Coast of U.S. shipyards has proven to be a consistent problem. If we want to be able to quickly build and repair ships and relevant assets at both scale and a rapid pace, the U.S. must diversify our shipyards to focus on getting the right systems into the hands of the warfighter. Too much of our defense budget is being poured into ineffective programs and overcomplicated contracts that don't keep pace with evolving threats. Eliminating unnecessary bureaucratic red tape is necessary here to unshackle our domestic defense industrial base. Incentivizing private companies to contribute to our defenses and infrastructure would help to streamline this process and allow for faster development and deployment of new technologies that can give us an edge over China in key areas.

If the U.S. is serious about deterring CCP aggression in the Indo-Pacific, we must give our navy the tools and resources to do so. This means embarking on a concerted effort to restore our domestic defense industrial base so as to prevent the projected 2027 scenario from happening in the first place.

Congressman Pat Fallon represents Texas’s 4th Congressional District. An Air Force veteran, he is a member of the House Armed Services, Intelligence, and Oversight and Accountability committees.